India’s security expansion not targeted at China

India’s security expansion not targeted at China

Global Times | April 23, 2012 19:45
By Global Times

India has just successfully tested the 5,000-kilometer-range Agni-V missile, further strengthening its security.
In early April, the Indian Defence Minister A.K. Anthony commissioned the Russian origin 8,000-ton Akula II-class nuclear-powered attack submarine, the INS Chakra, in eastern port of Visakhapatnam. This was leased from Russia at a cost of about $1 billion and is meant to patrol the seas, and track and hunt enemy submarines in wartime and be used for surveillance in peacetime.
These two pieces of news, plus a Stockholm International Peace Research Institute report in March saying that India is now the world's largest arms importer, have made many, especially Chinese military analysts, worry that India is sending a strong deterrent signal to China.
Some observers are saying that the Agni-V missile can have Beijing within its reach and is designed to send a strong deterrent signal to China. But since both countries follow a No First Use nuclear doctrine, if China does not use nuclear weapons against India, then the Agni-V will not be used by India against China in a nuclear war. In the past four strategic dialogues at the foreign secretary level between India and China, India brought out proposals for "de-targeting." It does not want to target China with nuclear warheads.
Purely from a military perspective, India's commission of nuclear-powered attack submarine is not aimed at China either. The submarine will carry Klub-class cruise missiles and not nuclear missiles. Hence it is not meant to add strategic deterrence to the Indian Navy. As India, like China, follows No First Use, the counter-strike or second strike response needs to be robust and credible.
Let's then look at India's arms purchasing, which is gaining lots of attention. With sales to India now accounting for 10 percent of all arms purchases during the past five years, there are views that India's "military modernization" comes through buying and renting weapons from other countries, and is aimed at resisting China's rise.
It is true that India is recently able to purchase a lot of conventional weapons from several countries. While China is the target of an arms embargo by the US and Europe, they have no problems selling to India.
However, due to corruption scandals or delays in procurement, India was unable to close many arms deals in the 1980s or 1990s, and several were delayed. That's why the recent purchases by India appear to be overwhelming.
India also spends less on indigenous research and development compared to China. To enhance its indigenous capabilities, India has recently been insisting on either local joint design or license manufacturing agreements with prospective arms sellers. India has also cancelled several arms purchases from the US or other countries.
Western media has been hyping of the military confrontation between China and India. This mentality has much clout. The Western media does not see Indian military modernization as part of occupying and expanding territories, while in the case of China, its military modernization is seen as expanding its territorial claims. The recent controversy about the South China Sea islands is a case in point.
In the foreseeable future, Sino-Indian relations will not be severely troubled. While there are differences between India and China on a number of issues, both are also engaged in mutually beneficial cooperation and participation in multilateral forums.
There will not be a conventional or nuclear war between the two countries. As both are nuclear powers, it is difficult to imagine a war between the two, and both are very clear that escalation from one level to the other can be very difficult to predict. India and China have lots of common interests. The two should understand the mainstream in their ties, and should not be over-influenced by either Western instigation or excessive speculations.
This article was compiled by Global Times reporter Wang Wenwen based on an interview with Srikanth Kondapalli, a professor from School of International Studies at Jawaharlal Nehru University.wangwenwen@globaltimes.com.cn

http://www.globaltimes.cn/NEWS/tabid/99/ID/706244/Indias-security-expansion-not-targeted-at-China.aspx

India and China must remember common threat amid missile fuss

India and China must remember common threat amid missile fuss

Global Times | April 22, 2012 20:05
By Global Times

 

The successful launch of the long-range nuclear-capable Angi-V missile on Thursday was applauded and celebrated by many Indian analysts and media outlets. They associate the move with India's wish to set China as a reference point for its military development, and believe that India is going to join the global intercontinental missile club soon.
In fact, India has little to celebrate. Up until the 1980s, India was far more advanced than China in both economy as well as technology. After that, China raced ahead, and today has outclassed India in both areas.
The Manmohan Singh government, because of pressure from NATO member countries, has kept a slow pace with their Integrated Guided Missile Program (IGMP).
The Agni-V is deemed to be in its final stage, whereas in fact the IGMP ought to have progressed to develop a range of 9,000 kilometers.
The celebrations over the missile conceal the inadequacies and slow pace of the program, and hide the fact that successive Indian governments have capitulated to pressure from NATO to restrict the range and power of their launch vehicles.
By now, India ought to be a space power. However, the country is so far behind China in this field that it is embarrassing.
India faces a huge vulnerability. More than 80 percent of its critical weapons systems are imported from France, the US, Russia and Israel.
If these countries cut off supplies or ammunition during a conflict, India would be helpless.
India's recent military output, including a strategic growth in nuclear forces and arms purchasing, is designed to catch the eye. But for how long can borrowed weaponry lead to genuine security?
The fact is, weapons systems imported from abroad are subject to a massive risk of supply disruption.
Those in India who celebrate because the country has become a favorite destination of international arms dealers are just being foolish.
Sadly, it is easy to please the Indian government. All that is needed is flattery.
By playing up the "China threat" and postulating that India can "counter and contain China," vested interests are hoping to ensure that more and more money is spent on foreign weapons systems rather than domestic manufacture.
It is also interesting to see the Indian public's response to the boost of military strength, especially the latest test of the Agni-V missile. There are lots of nationalistic voices to be heard at the moment, they say that the Indian people are strong, the military is motivated and there is no fear of China among the ordinary people.
However, both countries should beware of efforts to create widespread fear and tension. Bad relations between India and China will hurt both countries and aid those who seek to subjugate Asia and the world.
Both Indian and Chinese commentators need to look at the bigger picture and focus on the common threat faced by both peoples; the efforts to derail their nation's development and weaken them internally.
Patriotism is only genuine when it is expressed in a way that helps the country. If expressed in ways that are harmful to national interests, then it is false patriotism.
India still suffers from a lack of funds for infrastructure construction and public voices are speaking out to say that the government should spend more on civil livelihood projects, rather than military schemes. There are similar arguments in China, too.
At China's stage of development, it is not possible to completely separate the military from the civilian.
In the case of both countries, the development of technology is crucial to a better future which means a certain amount of sacrifice has been necessary in recent times.
But it would be short-sighted to slow down on military research and development. On the contrary, technological innovation stemming from military research can help other aspects of the economy to become more competitive internationally. This has to be explained to the people.
Although there is an international effort to paint India and China as enemies and to make the two countries go to war with each other, such an effort will fail. The Chinese and Indian people share a long history and culture, and what is needed is more discussion between the two about their economics, education, tourism and culture.
We must create so many bridges of friendship that the plans of other countries to make China and India into enemies will fail. Together, India and China can make Asia strong. Divided, not only these two countries but all of Asia will remain weak.

The article was compiled by Global Times reporter Chen Chenchen based on an interview with M.D. Nalapat, director and professor of the School of Geopolitics at Manipal University in India. chenchenchen@globaltimes.com.cn

http://www.globaltimes.cn/NEWS/tabid/99/ID/706077/India-and-China-must-remember-common-threat-amid-missile-fuss.aspx

Rival for US maritime power looming fast on the horizon

Rival for US maritime power looming fast on the horizon

Global Times | April 22, 2012 20:10
By James Holmes

 

China can build a strong navy, and it is. Some Western commentators maintain that a continental power like China can never compete with a world-straddling naval power like the United States. A century ago Captain Alfred Thayer Mahan, the second president of our Naval War College, proclaimed that no nation could rank as a great land power and a great sea power at the same time, or at least not for long.
The exigencies of land defense siphon too many resources from maritime pursuits. If Mahan had it right, Chinese marine ambitions will ultimately come to grief. Skeptical pundits today commonly invoke the Chinese battle fleets' long absence from the high seas, or the Qing Dynasty's (1644-1911) inability to construct a strong navy during its waning days, or Mao Zedong's famous indifference to naval endeavors. Geographic and cultural impediments, they say, are too much to overcome.
As Admiral John Cunningham aptly observed, "it might take the navy three years to build a new fleet" but "300 years to build a new tradition." The hurdles in front of Chinese sea power are high. But few outcomes are preordained given human ingenuity and perseverance.
Indeed, Mahan's homeland rebuts his thesis. The US is a great land power. Because its frontiers face no serious threat, the republic can spare the resources for sea power, as it started doing in the 1880s, when shipwrights laid the keels for the US Navy's first modern men-of-war. Tranquil borders afford Beijing the same luxury. If China stays on good terms with its neighbors, easing the burden of land defense, it may replicate America's feat by the fin de siècle.
Now, how will China employ its navy?
Some Chinese sea-power proponents chafe at Beijing's apparent reluctance to use the People's Liberation Army Navy (PLA Navy) to settle matters in the South and East China seas.
I would describe this as prudent diplomacy. Sea power encompasses far more than navies. For Mahan, sea power was founded on international commerce, merchant and naval fleets, and overseas bases where ships could pause for supplies and repairs. Land-based weaponry plays its part in this high-tech age. Even ships deployed by non-military agencies like China Maritime Surveillance represent useful tools in the toolkit.
Think about last week's standoff at Scarborough Shoal, west of Luzon. The Philippine Navy is little more than a coast guard. Indeed, its flagship is a surplus US Coast Guard cutter of 1960s vintage. Beijing enjoys the luxury of dispatching unarmed or lightly armed vessels to uphold its maritime territorial claims vis-à-vis such a force. Doing so spares China from looking like a bully. And China's leadership always has the option of escalating by deploying PLA Navy vessels that can vastly outgun their Philippine counterparts, making the outcome of any armed clash a foregone conclusion. Manila understands that PLA Navy firepower stands behind Chinese cutters cruising contested waters, and the Philippine officials are reluctant to push too hard. That knowledge translates into a kind of virtual coercion and deterrence for China.
Using the maritime enforcement agencies, or "five dragons," this way reflects a broad, sophisticated understanding of the political uses of ships. I would handle matters similarly if I were overseeing Chinese maritime operations.
Lastly, how can China ease fellow seagoing nations' qualms toward its burgeoning nautical might? The only way is to establish a track record for living by its rhetoric. Foreign observers measure words against deeds.
Take it from me: Americans still hear from our Latin American friends about the "banana wars" of the early 20th century! Telling others that China seeks only "peaceful development," harbors only goodwill and the like only goes so far.
If China is a benign seafaring nation, it must prove it through its actions at sea. China is amassing formidable sea power. How skillfully it wields that power remains to be seen.
The author is an associate professor at the US Naval War College. opinion@globaltimes.com.cn

http://www.globaltimes.cn/NEWS/tabid/99/ID/706078/Rival-for-US-maritime-power-looming-fast-on-the-horizon.aspx

Vice-presidente chinês defende que as lideranças chinesas devem estudar o marxismo e aplicá-lo para resolver os problemas concretos do país! Será?

Vice President urges officials to enhance study of Marxism

Chinese Vice President Xi Jinping on Friday urged leaders and cadres to attach great importance to the study of Marxist theories and to creatively use them in analyzing and solving the country's practical problems.

Xi, also president of the Party School of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC), made the remarks at the school's opening ceremony for the spring semester's second group of students.

Officials can enhance knowledge and insight, as well as foster a down-to-earth work style through their study of Marxism, said Xi, who is also a member of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee.

Officials cannot do without the guidance of Marxist philosophy and the methodologies of dialectical materialism and historical materialism in making proper judgements on situations, keeping a sober mind in complex situations, and analyzing scientifically the country's development opportunities and challenges, he said.

Furthermore, he encouraged CPC officials to enhance learning socialist theories with Chinese characteristics and to make efforts in solving prominent problems which may restrain the country from developing in a scientific way.

More than 1,100 people, including CPC officials attending the school's spring semester and the school's leaders, attended Friday's ceremony.

http://china.globaltimes.cn/chinanews/2011-05/654960.html

Brics e IBSA

Abril 30, 2011

BRICS set to outshine IBSA?

Rajiv Bhatia

AP From left to right, BRICS leaders, Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, Chinese President Hu Jintao, Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff and South African President Jacob Zuma at a one-day summit in Sanya, China. File photo

When BRICS speaks, its views are bound to receive much greater notice than those of IBSA. If IBSA does not become stronger, it will become irrelevant.

In international politics, nations form new groupings or compete to join existing ones, sustain them for a while or long, and then abandon them, though seldom closing them formally. Following the recent summit of leaders of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa (BRICS), it is worth pondering what lies in store for the IBSA Dialogue Forum with India, Brazil and South Africa as its members.

The two groupings

Last April, before the second BRIC summit and the fourth IBSA summit, the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) stated that BRIC was “still in a nascent stage,” whereas IBSA, as “the older grouping,” was flourishing well. This April, however, the perception has changed. According to an MEA official, BRICS has “a very good future.” He added that South Africa's entry into BRIC, transforming it into BRICS, would not “diminish IBSA in any way.” Is that a given or veiled signal that a serious internal debate is now under way to measure the relative utility, both actual and potential, of the two groupings?

Ironically, South Africa, which invested enormous diplomatic capital to secure its entry into BRIC, will host the next IBSA summit in 2011. And India, which has been in the forefront to project IBSA as a “unique” organisation of leading democracies, pluralist societies and emerging economies from three different continents, will host the BRICS summit in 2012.

In terms of key indicators, BRICS will have little difficulty in outshining IBSA. The former accounts for 26 per cent of the world's area, 40 per cent of its population, and 22 per cent of global GDP. Therefore, when BRICS speaks, its views are bound to receive much greater notice than those of IBSA. It also helps that those drafting BRICS declarations are far more concise and self-disciplined than their colleagues in IBSA who still seem to be driven by the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM)-style urge to be long-winded.

Sanya declaration

More important, as the Sanya declaration — the outcome document of the recent BRICS summit — demonstrated, five of the largest emerging economies now have “a broad consensus” of views not only on key international economic and financial issues but also on certain global political issues. The need for effective implementation of G-20 decisions, the demand for the reform of financial institutions of global governance — enabling developing countries to enjoy a greater say in them — and monetary reform, including the re-drafting of Special Drawing Rights (SDR), fall in the first category. The idea of a broad-based reserve currency which serves as an alternative to, but not a substitute for, the U.S. dollar would be studied further. The decision in principle to establish payment of credits in local currencies instead of the dollar has been noted widely.

On the political side, three key issues deserve a brief mention. BRICS has voiced support for a comprehensive reform of the U.N., including the Security Council. In this context, Russia and China have underlined the importance they attach to the status of India, Brazil and South Africa in international affairs, committing themselves “to understand and support” the three countries' “aspiration to play a greater role in the U.N.”

This is an advance, albeit a modest one. On countering international terrorism, a common position has emerged, which is significant, considering that South Africa has for long nurtured the notion that a blanket condemnation of terrorism should somehow exclude genuine liberation movements.

On the Libyan crisis, however, BRICS has managed to create an ample air of ambivalence. Prior to the Sanya summit, four countries abstained on the U.N. resolution, thereby providing a cover for western intervention, and one (South Africa) supported the resolution. At the summit, however, all five member- states expressed support for avoiding the use of force and ensuring respect for the principle of non-interference in the internal affairs of a nation. As the South African President has been playing a mediatory role under the African Union mandate, he succeeded in securing support for the AU High-Level Panel Initiative on Libya, although it has not been getting anywhere so far. BRICS is struggling to cater to its numerous constituencies that are in conflict with one another.

Perhaps the most noteworthy aspect of the development of BRICS is the focus placed on promoting internal cooperation. Their Foreign Ministers have been meeting regularly since 2006. Three summits in less than two years have provided a fillip to discussions involving Finance Ministers, Agriculture Ministers, National Security Advisors and others including national statistical institutions, business communities and Track- II organisations. BRICS has decided to advance its cooperation “in a gradual and pragmatic manner,” making it “inclusive and non-confrontational.” The declaration has put intra-BRICS cooperation in three categories, namely existing cooperation, new areas of cooperation such as health and joint research on trade and economic issues, and new proposals for cooperation pertaining to culture, sports, green economy and pharmaceutical industry.

Comparison with IBSA

How does IBSA compare with the dramatic expansion of BRICS? Quite favourably so far, but it could change quickly.

Since the first meeting of its Foreign Ministers in 2003, IBSA has acquired an institutional character as well as considerable dynamism. Journeying through four summits, its member-states have bonded well, and the new leaders in two of them (South Africa and Brazil) have reiterated their commitment to the Dialogue Forum. Of its four principal facets, the Forum has regularly coordinated its positions on international and regional issues; it has been managing diverse development projects in seven Least Developed Countries (LDCs); it has sought to forge mutually beneficial trilateral cooperation through 16 Working Groups in areas ranging from transportation and agriculture to health, taxation and IT; and, above all, it has innovatively developed people-to-people contacts encompassing business, media, women, academics, and parliamentarians.

However, now that BRICS has emerged as a potential competitor to IBSA, the latter needs to re-calibrate its strategy and refine its unique selling proposition. Four suggestions merit consideration here. Articulating views on world issues should now largely be left to BRICS, the more influential grouping. Secondly, IBSA should dramatically raise its profile as a partner of LDCs. Thirdly, intra-IBSA cooperation now needs to move beyond the phase of trans-continental travels, meetings, studies and MoUs to viable and demonstrable projects. Let IBSA establish effective maritime and civil aviation connectivity, develop a liberal visa scheme, and strive to operationalise India-SACU-Mercosur trade arrangements soon. Finally, more substance should be imparted to people-to-people contacts.

In a short span of two years BRICS has travelled “a long distance,” as Prime Minister Manmohan Singh put it. However, an exercise in fine balancing is desirable. Geopolitical considerations would dictate that India should prevent BRICS from acquiring an anti-U.S. orientation on political issues. Thus, while on key financial and development issues, the IBSA countries may go along with Russia and China, on political and security questions, they would need to strike proximity with Washington and European Union capitals.

External Affairs Minister S.M. Krishna asserted recently that BRICS has emerged as “a major voice” in world affairs. India will be in a better position to shape that voice when it succeeds in strengthening IBSA. If IBSA does not become stronger, it will become irrelevant. As the senior most among IBSA leaders, Dr. Singh bears a special responsibility. MEA can help him by being clinical and courageous.

(The author is a former Indian ambassador.)

http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/article1978593.ece?homepage=true

Relações China-Paquistão

Pakistan-China cooperation to develop further: Pakistan opposition party leader

Pakistan-China cooperation will continue to keep developing through joint efforts as the two countries celebrate the 60th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic ties between them, the leader of Pakistan's largest opposition party said Friday.

Muhammad Shahbaz Sharif, president of Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), said the cooperation between Pakistan and China have yielded great dividends for the two peoples over the past six decades.

"The friendship between Pakistan and China is higher than the Himalayas, deeper than the ocean, and sweeter than honey and sugar," said Sharif, who is also the chief minister of Pakistan's most populous Punjub Province.

This year is also the China-Pakistan Friendship Year, which was declared by Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao and his Pakistani counterpart Yousuf Raza Gilani during Wen's visit to Pakistan in December 2010.

To further promote Pakistan-China friendship and cooperation is the consensus across the political spectrum in Pakistan, Sharif said, adding that Pakistan is grateful for China's efforts to help Pakistan in its development.

As a close friend of China, Pakistan is proud of the achievements made by China since the introduction of the reform and opening-up policy, Sharif said.

He also said he believes bilateral trade will grow quickly in tandem with deepening ties. Currently, China is Pakistan's third largest trade partner, while Pakistan is China's second largest trade partner in South Asia.

Pakistan-China cooperation to develop further: Pakistan opposition party leader

• Source: Xinhua
• [09:16 April 23 2011]
• Comments

Pakistan-China cooperation will continue to keep developing through joint efforts as the two countries celebrate the 60th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic ties between them, the leader of Pakistan's largest opposition party said Friday.

Muhammad Shahbaz Sharif, president of Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), said the cooperation between Pakistan and China have yielded great dividends for the two peoples over the past six decades.

"The friendship between Pakistan and China is higher than the Himalayas, deeper than the ocean, and sweeter than honey and sugar," said Sharif, who is also the chief minister of Pakistan's most populous Punjub Province.

This year is also the China-Pakistan Friendship Year, which was declared by Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao and his Pakistani counterpart Yousuf Raza Gilani during Wen's visit to Pakistan in December 2010.

To further promote Pakistan-China friendship and cooperation is the consensus across the political spectrum in Pakistan, Sharif said, adding that Pakistan is grateful for China's efforts to help Pakistan in its development.

As a close friend of China, Pakistan is proud of the achievements made by China since the introduction of the reform and opening-up policy, Sharif said.

He also said he believes bilateral trade will grow quickly in tandem with deepening ties. Currently, China is Pakistan's third largest trade partner, while Pakistan is China's second largest trade partner in South Asia.

http://china.globaltimes.cn/diplomacy/2011-04/647762.html

Acordo China-Tunísia

China willing to fund investment projects in Tunisia: official

China is willing to fund investment projects in Tunisia and Tunisia would offer better facilities for Chinese investors, Tunisian state-run press agency TAP reported late Thursday, quoting visiting Chinese Deputy Commerce Minister Fu Ziying.

Fu, who is leading a delegation of Chinese businessmen and banking sector representatives for a four-day work visit in Tunis, met with the Tunisian Minister of Commerce and Tourism Mehdi Houas Thursday.

The two officials discussed the financing within the framework of China-Africa strategic partnership mechanism, projects including a luxury tourism complex, and a free exchange industrial zone for the manufacturing of household electric appliances destined to the European market.

Fu handed Tunisia an official invitation to take part in the Arab-Chinese cooperation forum due to be held in China in June, 2011.

Beijing set up the China-Africa strategic partnership mechanism in 2006, providing a number of credit lines for the benefit of 49 African countries.

http://china.globaltimes.cn/diplomacy/2011-04/647735.html

China: soft power

China's cultural power remains feeble: report
(Xinhua)
Updated: 2011-02-18 21:19

BEIJING - As China becomes a global economic powerhouse, its cultural influence remains feeble, with the country's culture industry only accounting for less than 4 percent of the world's output, according to a blue book released on Friday.

The blue book, called the "Annual Report On China's Cultural Soft Power Research (2010)," was published under the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS)' Social Sciences Academic Press.

The report said that China's cultural soft power lagged behind its rapid growth of "hard power."

The proportion of the country's cultural industry in GDP was much lower than the over 10 percent in developed western countries, it noted.

In addition, the cultural sector of the United States accounts for 43 percent of the world's industry total, while China accounts for less than 4 percent, figures from the report showed.

In the competition against international cultural giants, China lacks both representative world-class cultural enterprises and a competitive power based on advanced technologies, according to the blue book.

The report warned that "in an international contest, a country could be vulnerable due to its weakness in hard power and otherwise be naked as a result of its feebleness in soft power."

The report also blamed the country's current cultural system and the quality of citizens for the growth of cultural soft power.

The report urged the implementation of measures to promote the development of China's cultural soft power by moving forward the nation's traditional culture and pushing forward innovations in the cultural industry.

Apart from boosting the country's traditional culture, China should also make more efforts to foster its modern image on the world stage by "letting people outside of China know what is going on in the country in a simple way," the report suggested.

However, the paper also acknowledged China's cultural soft power development in the past years. This includes its reform of the cultural system, the development of the cultural industry, and the spread of Chinese culture overseas.

As of November 2009, about 282 Confucius institutes, which are considered a channel and a brand name for spreading Chinese culture around the world, have been set up in higher educational institutions around the world. They are jointly held by Chinese and foreign universities.

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2011-02/18/content_12042746.htm#

A China pode assumir responsabilidades maiores no sistema internacional? 3

China still needs time to develop

Michele Geraci, 25 May 2010

As one of the largest economies in the world, China is being asked by the international community to take a more and more active role in world affairs, ranging from contributing to stabilizing the post-financial crisis global economy to cutting greenhouse gas emission.

Sometimes, Western approach toward China is contradictory or driven by political agenda. For example, in 2005 Chinese oil company CNOOC was prevented by the US government from acquiring Unocal, on grounds of national security. But, during the peak of the global financial crisis, when money was needed urgently, China was allowed - even invited - to acquire a significant stake in Morgan Stanley. Simply put, the Western world now demands that China's entry into the small circle of powerful economies be accompanied by an increased responsibility in world matters.

The question that follows naturally is: "Is China really a global economic power or still a developing nation?" As it is often the case when dealing with China, the answer is: 'it depends'. Luckily, statistics speak for themselves and below I give some basic figures that show the dual characteristics of the Chinese economy.

Simply using the size of the overall economy ($4.9 trillion), we may conclude that China is amongst the top three economies in the world. But when we look at per capita GDP ($3,900), China is amongst the poorest nations in the world. On per capita income basis, Chinese people are even poorer, given that, over the last several years, GDP growth has been faster than wages.

On the issue of carbon dioxide emission, China as a whole may be the largest emitter in the world, but each American citizen pollutes the atmosphere 5 times more than his Chinese counterpart. European, including Russia's, per capita emission is also much higher than in China.

China's oil consumption is higher than Japan, but less than half that of the US. Again, on a per capita basis, the picture changes dramatically, with a Chinese citizen consuming only 10 percent of its US counterpart.

Finally, income disparity has increased dramatically in China, with the Gini coefficient - a measure of how wealth is concentrated in the hands of few people - increasing from 0.16 before the reform and opening up to 0.47 today, suggesting that income gap between the rich and the poor has increased dramatically.

In addition, foreigners' view of China tends to be distorted because of a number of reasons, including different values and cultural backgrounds, the tendency of Western media to promptly highlight negative events over achievements and, ultimately, the fact that most of the influential foreigners residing in China tend to live within the comforts of the expatriate communities in Beijing or Shanghai. Over time, many of them fall into the trap of believing that the glamour they witness in Chaoyang district of Beijing is representative of the whole of China.

I have had the opportunity, during the last year and half, to travel extensively across the country, clocking more than 100,000 km by train, buses and cars. I have visited several tier 2 and 3 cities and have spent considerable time in remote villages. I have seen and talked with people belonging to various strata, from business travelers to migrant workers, families, young people driving expensive cars and more conservative representatives of the older, more traditional, generation.

Far from being a scientific or comprehensive analysis, my feeling is that most of the Chinese people still live under tough economic conditions and have to endure daily hardship. Farmers still toil in the fields performing manual work or using old machinery; the profits from one mu (1/15th of a hectare) of land is about 1,500 yuan a year - not surprisingly many wish to migrate to cities.

Living conditions remain very basic and access to higher education or health services is, sometimes, difficult. Infrastructure is developing very fast, but most of the new facilities remain beyond the means of the average citizen. While the southern provinces enjoy a more pleasant natural environment, the same cannot be said of the western and northwestern provinces, where climate is harsher and natural beauty less easily seen.

Notwithstanding these issues, I have also seen a great sense of hope and pride, even among people performing most humble jobs, something that has been lost in Europe. Sending a child to a better school and giving it the chance of a better future is already a great reward for parents, even if they still continue to plough fields day after day. The word "endure" is often heard in conversations.

It is in this backdrop of "two Chinas" that we, as foreigners, need to comprehend this diverse and vast country. While it is auspicial that, over time, China will take a more active role in international affairs - as it is indeed already doing - I believe it is right that it continues to focus its efforts on improving living conditions for its own people first. We need to be patient with China, engage it in debates, but respect the speed at which it chooses to take certain actions, without imposing our own thinking, or worse, advance undue requests.

Given the still ongoing uncertainties in the financial systems and the issues that the European Union and the euro face today, we may, perhaps need just another friendly helping hand to solve our own problems.

The author is head of China Program at the Global Policy Institute of London Metropolitan University and visiting scholar at Zhejiang University.

This article originally appeared in the China Daily.

http://www.gpilondon.com/index.php?id=243

A China pode assumir responsabilidades maiores no sistema internacional? 2

Onus not binding on China
By Zhang Zhouxiang (China Daily)
Updated: 2011-02-17 08:06

As expected, Japan confirmed on Monday that China had replaced it as the world's second largest economy. But the confirmation was accompanied by some Western and Japanese media outlets calling for China to share more international responsibilities.

Some Chinese scholars say the West exhorting China to share greater international responsibilities is as bad as the long-existing "China threat theory", which demonizes China.

But for Jin Canrong, professor and vice-dean of the School of International Studies, Renmin University of China, the two are different. "The 'China threat theory' assumes that China is an evil country," he says. "But the 'China responsibility theory' is based on the assumption that it is a powerful country."

That's why he doesn't see any conspiracy behind the "China responsibility theory". The reason for such misunderstanding, he says, lies in certain cognitive gaps between Chinese and foreigners on China's development and achievements.

Jin says it is not wise to draw such a conspiracy conclusion. The "China responsibility theory" means three things: China is a rising power, China is cooperative and China hasn't shouldered its responsibilities fully.

Hence, such a theory indicates that the West is increasingly accepting China's rise.

The problem is that Western countries want China to shoulder the responsibilities that they want it to. Jin doesn't think the "China responsibility theory" will necessarily have a negative impact on China. On the contrary, the theory offers challenges and opportunities both and, hence, can act as a driver for China's development.

Some United States-based think tanks say the rise of China is one of the most important events of the 21st century.

But they say China is lingering on a strategic crossroads without being sure whether it will accept the existing international order under its leadership.

The West, especially the US, has many expectations when it comes to China's responsibilities, Jin says. On the economic front, the US expects China to open its domestic market further and reduce its bilateral trade surplus. In politics, it wants China to be more liberal and democratic like the West. In military affairs, it requires China to be more transparent and exhibit mutual trust. In diplomacy, China is expected to be more cooperative in resolving key affairs like the Korean Peninsula nuclear and Iran nuclear issues.

In some sense, Washington's expectations of Beijing seek to build China on the US model, Jin says. "That is something China cannot agree to."

Because of different values and interests, China and the West, especially the US, differ sharply on the definition of responsibility. China's view of "a responsible power" is different from the West's "China responsibility theory".

China has shouldered more international responsibilities since the Asia financial crisis in the late 1990s. It is one of the few countries that participates in most international organizations, and has made great efforts to resolve the Korean Peninsula and Iran nuclear issues. It has exempted debts of developing countries, too.

Despite all this, the West, especially the US, keeps pressuring China to shoulder more international responsibilities.

What they don't understand is that China still faces great challenges. First, China needs to prioritize its national interests.

Second, China is now an integral part of the international community. It has benefited from the international system over the past three decades, and is now it is playing an active role to improve it. Finding a way to strike a balance between maintaining the international system and improving it, however, is not the responsibility of China alone. The US has a decisive role to play.

Third, the US demands that China be more responsible to the US - and even compromise with it.

Since China's rise has caused tremendous changes in the world, it is natural for it to face more pressure from the international community, especially Western countries. Perhaps the best way for China to avoid hostility is to have more communication and interaction with the rest of the world.

Jin says China's involvement in international affairs is getting deeper. But he believes it should raise the level of its participation and improve the way it deals with certain international issues. "China needs its own voice and has to make more proposals and suggest solutions to more problems."

"Strategic mutual trust is established on the basis of interaction, which can facilitate agreement and eliminate misunderstandings," Jin says. "We need to make more efforts to enable the international community to understand China better."

China is still a developing country. Domestic development, and not an influential presence in the international community, is still its biggest responsibility. For example, China is still just a regional power and can hardly develop as a strong maritime power. There are some thorny problems, such as the Korean Peninsula issue and the South China Sea territorial disputes, which China needs great wisdom to deal with. Hence, China is still far from becoming a global power.

"So it is not right for the West to expect that China to share international responsibilities according to their demands," Jin says.

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/opinion/2011-02/17/content_12030036.htm

A China pode assumir responsabilidades maiores no sistema internacional? 1

China's real responsibilities
By Qu Xing (China Daily)
Updated: 2011-02-18 08:17

It's unfair to impose unrealistic international duties upon the country which still needs to raise its development level

Now China's GDP has surpassed that of Japan to become the world's second largest, some Western media, which predicted that China was on the brink of collapse a short time ago, have begun to claim that China is no longer a developing country, and therefore should shoulder more international responsibilities.

China has never shunned its international duties, it bore great pressure in helping the world economy recover from the Asian financial crisis of 1997 and the international financial crisis of 2008. China's huge debt reduction and development aid to African countries has received high praise from its recipients.

However, as statistics from major international organizations indicate, China is still a developing country according to its current level of development and it cannot accept "responsibilities" out of line with the country's level of development.

The United Nations Development Program (UNDP), which calculates a "human development index" for each country based on three indices - average life expectancy, education and living standards - ranked China 89th in 2010 and as a developing country with "a medium level of development".

The World Bank and IMF both rank China as a lower middle-income country.

The country's industrial and employment structures and rate of urbanization are typical of a lower middle-income country. While China has made considerable progress in strengthening overall competitiveness, progress in modernization still lags significantly behind.

In the 2010 World Competitiveness Yearbook released by the International Institute for Management Development (IMD), China ranked 18th.

China has performed well in the development of the domestic economy, international trade, employment, public finance, the labor market and scientific infrastructure, but is not as competitive as it could be in terms of international investment, business legislation, management practice, health and the environment.

Of the 12 indices examined in the Global Competitiveness Report 2009-2010 issued by the World Economic Forum, China ranked 79th in the world in the maturity of its science and technology.

China's technological innovation capability is poor. It's spending on research and development is far lower than that of the major developed countries and Chinese enterprises have few research and development facilities. The great majority of the patents for inventions in the area of high technology in China come from overseas.

The nation also spends much less on education than developed countries, has insufficient medium and high-level personnel and has a much lower overall level of human resources than developed countries and emerging industrial countries. The low proportion of China's population with a high school education has become a bottleneck in efforts to improve the quality of China's human resources. The average world level of spending on education is 4.9 percent of GDP and the level of most countries is generally not lower than 4 percent. According to the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, actual investment in public education in China accounts for only 2.4 percent of its GDP.

The rapid development of China's economy in recent years has greatly increased the size of China's economy but it has also increased the gap between the rich and the poor. China's Gini Coefficient - a commonly used measure of wealth inequality - reached 0.47 in 2010, higher than those of developed countries such as France (0.327), Switzerland (0.337) and the United States (0.408). China has made great achievements in poverty alleviation in recent years, but there is still a great deal that needs to be done to help the poor.

During the 30-plus years of reform and opening-up, the country has moved into the front ranks of the world in terms of overall strength and competitiveness in some fields. This is undoubtedly a great achievement. But most of the indices, such as those for economic and social development, education, health, science and technology, indicate that China is a developing country and still has much to do to.

China cannot accept responsibilities that would threaten its economic and social development.

The author is president of the China Institute of International Studies.

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/opinion/2011-02/18/content_12036780.htm

A China está atacando o Canadá?

Denuncian en Canadá ciberataques a ministerios

18/02/11

Toronto. Efe

El primer ministro de Canadá, Stephen Harper, admitió ayer que su país está sufriendo un ataque cibernético a gran escala aunque se negó a confirmar que los responsables sean “hackers” extranjeros situados en China, como informaron algunos medios locales.

Harper también reconoció durante una rueda de prensa que los expertos en seguridad del gobierno están intentando detener el ataque, revelado por la TV pública canadiense, CBC.

“Este es un asunto del que somos conscientes y nuestro personal de seguridad está trabajando para resolverlo”, afirmó.

El diario The Globe and Mail dijo que los ataques se están concentrando en los sistemas del Ministerio de Finanzas y la secretaría del Tesoro, los dos principales departamentos económicos de Canadá, y fueron detectados inicialmente a principios de febrero.

Fuentes gubernamentales consultadas por ese diario y por CBC señalaron que los ciberataques se originaron en sistemas informáticos basados en China .

Las mismas fuentes indicaron que los “hackers” fueron capaces de asumir el control de computadoras en las oficinas de altos funcionarios gubernamentales.

Cuando se detectó el ataque, las autoridades bloquearon el acceso a Internet de los sistemas afectados, lo que dejó sin acceso a la red a miles de funcionarios.

El gobierno chino aseguró ayer que las acusaciones de ciberataques perpetrados desde ese país contra petroleras occidentales son “infundadas” y que su país condena cualquier delito en Internet.

http://www.clarin.com/mundo/Denuncian-Canada-ciberataques-ministerios_0_429557131.html

WikiLeaks, Brasil, EUA e Conselho de Segurança

A divulgação dos telegramas norte-americanos pelo WikiLeaks mostra que os EUA não aprovam a inclusão do Brasil como membro permanente do Conselho de Segurança da ONU, entre outras, coisas, porque o Brasil não se alinhou às posições norte-americanas nos últimos anos. Isso refletiria uma imaturidade da diplomacia brasileira. Com a visita do presidente Barack Obama ao Brasil, aumenta especulação sobre o assunto, se o Obama vai apoiar a candidatura brasileira como fez com a China ou ainda sobre o esforço dos diplomatas que preparavam a visita de Obama para tentar evitar que ele seja questionado sobre o assunto.

Alguns pontos importantes sobre a questão:

1. Interessante os americanos serem contra a presença do Brasil, porque o Brasil divergiu dos EUA. Se isso fosse o motivo, então não poderiam apoiar a Índia. O que gera estranheza e desconfiança nos EUA é um país latino-americano não se alinhar automaticamente às teses americanas. Até a Folha de São Paulo foi capaz de perceber isso:

“O Brasil ainda não é "maduro" o suficiente para ser um ator global. Precisa ser "encorajado" pelos EUA a assumir "responsabilidades", aprendendo a "confrontar" outros países se necessário.
Avaliações como essa de dezembro de 2009, em tom paternalista e às vezes irônico, predominam na reação de diplomatas americanos em Brasília à campanha brasileira por uma cadeira permanente no Conselho de Segurança da ONU.”

2. Outro aspecto curioso é como as críticas americanas à política externa brasileira são convergentes com as críticas que aparecem na imprensa brasileira publicadas pelos luminares brasileiros.

3. Ainda que o Brasil queira de fato uma cadeira no Conselho de Segurança, nesse momento, ser candidato a uma cadeira no Conselho de Segurança é mais importante do que ter o assento permanente . Caso o Brasil não fosse candidato haveria uma desmobilização da política externa brasileira, o Brasil perderia importância no sistema internacional. E isso é mais importante por ser improvável uma reforma no Conselho de Segurança.

4. A reforma da ONU e do seu Conselho de Segurança é improvável, e ainda que ocorra, as mudanças poderão ser vetadas por qualquer membro permanente. Portanto, não basta ter o apoio de um, é preciso o apoio de todos.

5. Neste sentido, o apoio dos EUA à Índia é mais uma estratégia para a região asiática e um posicionamento em relação à China do qualquer outra coisa. A Índia não ficou mais perto de ser membro do Conselho de Segurança por ter o apoio dos EUA. Indianos e norte-americanos sabem disso. Sinalizam uma aliança para a chineses verem.

6. Se o Brasil não apoiasse a entrada da Índia e do Japão no Conselho de Segurança, poderia obter o apoio da China. Mas isso não o aproximaria mais do Conselho de Segurança. Incapaz de realizar uma política de poder, o Brasil realiza uma política de alianças amplas, de cooperação, de prestígio e de defesa de princípios que fortalecem as instituições em relação ao arbítrio, qualquer estratégia de confrontação desmoralizaria a estratégia brasileira.

7. Os conflitos diplomáticos entre o Brasil e os EUA em algumas das principais questões internacionais decorrem da estratégia brasileira para se projetar internacionalmente. O Brasil precisa se opor à política de poder tradicional que os EUA e as grandes potências praticam, porque neste tipo de política o Brasil não tem protagonismo e não tem condições de praticá-la.

Resoluções do ano novo chinês

Rabbit's resolutions
Source: Global Times
[08:17 February 01 2011]

Illustration: Liu Rui

http://opinion.globaltimes.cn/cartoon/2011-02/619136.html

Rivalidade entre China e Japão

Japan is ignored
Source: Global Times
[08:11 January 28 2011]

Illustration: Liu Rui

http://opinion.globaltimes.cn/cartoon/2011-01/617806.html

Índia e os conflitos no Afeganistão

India's options in Afghanistan
SD Pradhan
02 February 2011, 02:14 PM IST

The Current Situation:

The security situation in Afghanistan is fast deteriorating, which is a cause for concern not only for the neighbouring countries but for all the countries in the world which are facing terrorism. This country along with Pakistan remains the epicenter of terrorism. Violent incidents have spiked over the last two years. In the first half of 2010, rose nearly by 70% over the first six months of 2009. This trend continues till now. In the year 2010, more than 700 foreign troops were killed in Afghanistan on an average of about two per day. The use of improvised bombs was up by 80% and the number of civilian casualtieS increased by third. In fact the year 2010 proved to be the deadliest year.

 

A number of aid organizations in Afghanistan are challenging the Obama Administration’s recent claim that insurgents now control less territory than last year. Nie Lee Director of the Afghanistan’s Safety Office recently stated that “the situation (in Afghanistan) is a lot more insecure this year than last year.”He further stated that “there are fewer places where we have complete unimpeded access”. Security experts say that “Taliban shadow governors still exert control in all but one of Afghanistan’s 35 provinces”. Kandahar which was taken by NATO forces is witnessing violent incidents every thirD day. US and NATO intelligence assessment is that the Quetta Shura of Mullah Muhammad Omar, the Haqqani network and the Hykmatyar clan are fighting together. The Al Qaeda leaders too provide assistance. These outfits work as a syndicate, sharing new recruits, coordinating propaganda and granting one another safe passage through areas under their control.

 

The Pakistani Army and ISI continue to support Taliban. The US National Intelligence Estimate offered a negative assessment in December 2010. It clearly assessed that Pakistan’s unwillingness to shut down militant sanctuaries remains a serious obstacle. Late Special Envoy of US to Afghanistan and Pakistan Holbrooke highlighted the links between the ISI and Taliban in an interview to CNN-IBN on  July 22, 2010. He remarked that the LeT, Al Qaeda and Taliban as also ISI are all working closer together than ever before.

 

There is no dearth of funds with the Taliban as different channels continue to pour money to them. The opium trade provides substantial funds. According to the UN Office of Drugs and Crimes, the Taliban could be getting $160 mn per year from this source alone. In addition, charitable organizations from Saudi Arabia and other Islamic States could be providing $200 mn every year. In these two activities, the involvement of ISI is well documented. Besides, the US intelligence agencies estimate that the Afghan security firms have been extorting as much as $ 4 mn a week from contractors paid tax dollars and then funneling the spoils to warlords and Taliban.

 

For India the situation is becoming alarming with bold attacks taking place on Indians and on Indian interests frequently. Of late, Indian consulates and Indian Embassy in Kabul are receiving threats almost daily. This is undoubtedly happening at the behest of ISI, which is focused on removing the Indian presence in Afghanistan. The intelligence reports suggest that plans of attacks on Indian interests are being worked out in the presence and guidance of ISI officials.

 

Objectives of the Main Players:

The current situation in Afghanistan is becoming more and more complex because of conflicting objectives of the main players. These are:

 

The Karzai regime - There has been a shift in Karzai regime’s objectives of late. While earlier it had been opposing talks with Taliban, now it is going ahead with talks with Taliban elements. Significantly, there has been a shift on the issue of involvement of Pakistan. Notwithstanding the assurance given to the Indian Foreign Minister during his recent visit to Kabul that Pakistan would not be involved in talks with Taliban, the recently formed joint commission (27th January,2011) involving intelligence officials, diplomats and others of Pakistan and Afghanistan to deal with militants suggests that Karzai is now prepared to associate Pakistan to deal with Taliban. This is the second indication of this change of attitude of Karzai regime. The first indication came when Ammanullah Saleh, the chief of Afghanistan’s intelligence (RAAM) who had been opposing Pakistan’s support to Taliban, was removed. Perhaps Karzai has come to accept the view of US that the involvement of Pakistan is inevitable for his continuation. He and his colleagues may be thinking that when US starts withdrawal of troops, Pakistan’s links with the Taliban would have to be used for dealing with them. The ability of the Afghan National Army and the police remains extremely weak to deal with the Taliban and warlords. The corrupt politicians, who are in the Afghan Government, can hardly be of any help to Karzai. The international aid is not being properly utilized. The corrupt members of the Afghan Government and powerful local commanders are pocketing the aid. Economic growth is also hampered by the growing black market.

 

The USA - The US has come to the conclusion that it can not continue to bear the cost of this war and therefore has worked out the strategy to start withdrawal of troops. The Task Force chaired by Richard Armitage, former Secretary of State and supported by Samuel R Berger, former National Security Advisor had pointed out that the cost of the war in Afghanistan was increasing and therefore the strategy needed to be changed. It suggested that power should be transferred to Afghans and for that suitable arrangement needed to be made. Crucially, it recommended involvement of China in this plan. While it is not clear how US is planning to involve China in this task, it is assessed that during Robert Gate’s China visit and Hu Jintau’s visit to US, this issue must have been discussed. The US is well aware of China’s old links with Taliban as well as its hold on Pakistan. Obama Administration’s strategy of Counter-terrorism Plus per se is a sound policy that envisages eliminating terrorism, building capabilities of the Afghan Government and then withdraws from Afghanistan. However, neither the objectives are completely achievable within the stipulated timeframe nor the strategy of involving Pakistan and China is actually going to improve the situation. In all probabilities, the situation would worsen in the coming period.

 

Russia - Russia’s objectives in Afghanistan are elimination of terrorism which is affecting the security situation in Russia with Chechens receiving training in Afghanistan and checking drug trafficking. Russia is cooperating with NATO for this purpose. However, Russia desires concessions from NATO partners. It demands restriction on NATO deployment bigger than 3000 strong brigade in the combined territory of all former Soviet Bloc members as well as restrictions to be imposed on the deployment of aircraft in Eastern Europe and removal of the restrictions on Russian troops in the breakaway enclaves of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Russia is also aware of economic value of Afghanistan and therefore desires a friendly regime that would allow Russia lucrative development and mineral extraction deals. For Russia the best bet is Karzai or any other such person. Russia is unlikely to have good relations with Taliban.

 

China - China at London and Istanbul conferences (2010) asserted that Afghanistan was too critical an issue for regional security and stability to be left to Washington. The Chinese Foreign Minister, Yang Jiechi spelt out clearly that China intended to play an active role in Afghanistan that would safeguard its interests. In essence China desires unconditional and total vacation of foreign troops. China knows that the Taliban would occupy an important place in new dispensation. For the Chinese that would not be against their interests. In the pre 9/11 period, China had maintained links with Taliban and had invested in the development of infrastructure. In this, Pakistan had provided an invaluable support to China. China had obtained unexploded US missiles from the Taliban for reverse engineering. China knows it can easily build relations with Taliban with the support of Pakistan and would be able to reap economic benefits in that country besides protecting its own interests.

 

Pakistan - Pakistan’s single point programme is to bring Taliban back into power to achieve strategic depth against India and ensure removal of Indian presence in Afghanistan. It is opposing Indian involvement in the development programmes. The Indian aid of $ 1 bn is seen as an attempt by India to enhance its influence. The Afghan students coming to India (about 1000 every year) for studies is also not liked by Pakistan. Pakistan has also made the US realize that without Pakistan no operations can be launched in Afghanistan. The ISI sponsored burning of fuel tankers after blocking the supply routes had displayed Gen Kayani’s resolve to squeeze US. This strategy had found favour, both domestically and amongst the Taliban. With this Pakistan seems to have entered into a phase of blackmailing the US to do its bidding. Pakistan is tactically seeking concessions from US in enhancing the aid in military terms and strategically it is bargaining for a key role in Afghanistan’s future dispensation, which US is willing to give in order to leave Afghanistan as per its schedule.

 

Likely Scenario

Keeping in view the interests and strategies of main players, the security experts draw a grim picture. They point out that Karzai regime is unable to control the situation the influence of Taliban is growing. The corruption is rampant and there is hardly any chance that this regime could win over the population. The pressure on Karzai to accommodate elements from Taliban is on the increase. Obama’s idea of re-integrating Taliban is deeply flawed and raises concerns that Karzai would be ultimately forced into making concessions to the Taliban in terms of power sharing. The entire exercise is aimed at a ‘graceful exit’ strategy for the US and its allies and appears to have been carefully stage managed to allow US and NATO troops to start scripting withdrawal. While making a prognosis of the complex situation is not easy, going by the current trends, only two possibilities emerge. First Karzai could become a puppet in the hands of Taliban elements and would be following their agenda and second he may be forced to leave power that would bring Taliban to power in most of the provinces. In all probabilities Afghanistan would be divided in two parts - one larger part that would be governed by Taliban and other smaller part that would be ruled by those who are opposed to Taliban. This means that the situation would be similar to what was in existence prior to US operations.

 

India's Options

India’s options in Afghanistan have to be based on the emerging trends. India has to recognize the prevalent situation, likely scenario that is developing, be prepared to take necessary risks and act with far greater persuasion and resolve so as to apply soft and hard power instruments in an appropriate mix. Our national interest demands that Taliban control of the area would not be in our interest as the territory would continue to be used for training of terrorists of various hues. This in fact would not be in the interest of US and even Pakistan as they too are facing terrorist activities. However the Pakistani Army which is using terrorism as an instrument to deal with India is unlikely to change its stance. The US is in a hurry to leave Afghanistan and therefore is unlikely to wait till the capabilities of Taliban are destroyed and then hand over the country to the elected government of Afghanistan. Under these circumstances, cooperation with US is not going to help our cause. China has its own agenda and therefore the attempts to control Taliban with its help are not going to be of any help to us. The recent efforts to cooperate with China and Russia would require rethinking.

 

Of course, Russia and India have common interests and therefore we need to evolve common strategies to deal with Taliban. In the present circumstances, Karzai needs to be assisted to enable his regime to deal with the Taliban. His army’s ability needs to be significantly upgraded. However, pragmatism demands that we should also take measures to eventually deal with the divided Afghanistan, in which the Taliban would be controlling a substantial area. The Taliban should remain under pressure both from the northern side as well as from the southern side. For this we have to think of a broader strategy. At present our strategy is based on the concept that economic engagement alone will secure our interests. This may not work in view of changing scenario of Afghanistan. There is a need to work out a comprehensive strategy that would include dexterous use of all instruments of diplomacy, strategic intelligence operations and force projection. This is not suggesting that we should use armed forces but take a posture to indicate our will to protect our genuine interests at all costs. In our strategy much greater focus should be on the liberal Pashtuns, who oppose Taliban policy. There are people in Pakistan’s tribal areas who oppose the Talibanization of the area. Their hands need to be strengthened. Many liberal Pashtuns alleged that India did not back them strongly enough in the past. M Dawood, the Advisor to the Afghan Foreign Minister had aptly commented on India’s attitude, “India seems apologetic about its presence. It is a regional player and must behave like one instead of insisting on a benign presence with a penchant for staying in the background.”

 

http://blogs.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ChanakyaCode/entry/india-s-options-in-afghanistan

Fed supera a China e torna-se o maior detentor de títulos dos EUA

São Paulo, quinta-feira, 03 de fevereiro de 2011
   
Fed supera a China e torna-se o maior detentor de títulos dos EUA

DO "FINANCIAL TIMES" - O Fed, banco central dos EUA, superou a China como maior detentor de títulos do Tesouro dos Estados Unidos.
Hoje, o banco tem em seu poder US$ 1,1 trilhão em papéis. A China tem US$ 896 bilhões, e o Japão, US$ 877 bilhões, de acordo com os últimos dados disponíveis.
No último dia 26, o Fed afirmou que continuará com seu programa de recompra de títulos públicos como forma de estimular a economia do país.
O órgão também anunciou a manutenção dos juros entre zero e 0,25% ao ano.
Até o final de junho, a expectativa é que o banco adquira mais US$ 800 bilhões em papéis. Para efeito de comparação, antes da crise financeira mundial de 2008, a instituição detinha US$ 775 bilhões em títulos norte-americanos.
Durante o primeiro semestre daquele ano, o banco central dos EUA teve que reduzir suas reservas a apenas US$ 300 bilhões.
Isso porque seu capital teve que ser usado para ajudar a equilibrar o combalido sistema financeiro do país.

http://www1.folha.uol.com.br/fsp/mercado/me0302201129.htm

Avião chinês, tecnologia americana?

Chinese stealth fighter jet may use US technology

China may have bought parts of US F-117 Nighthawk shot down over Serbia in 1999, say experts

Associated Press

guardian.co.uk, Sunday 23 January 2011 12.11 GMT

China's J-20 stealth fighter pictured at Chengu airbase, Sichaun province, this month. Photograph: Kyodo/Reuters

A Chinese stealth fighter jet that could pose a significant threat to American air superiority may borrow from US technology, it has been claimed.

Balkan military officials and other experts said China may have gleaned knowledge from a US F-117 Nighthawk that was shot down over Serbia in 1999.

"At the time, our intelligence reports told of Chinese agents crisscrossing the region where the F-117 disintegrated, buying up parts of the plane from local farmers," said Admiral Davor Domazet-Loso, Croatia's military chief of staff during the Kosovo war. "We believe the Chinese used those materials to gain an insight into secret stealth technologies ... and to reverse-engineer them."

The Nighthawk was downed by a Serbian anti-aircraft missile during a bombing raid on 27 March 1999. It was the first time one of the fighters had been hit, and the Pentagon blamed clever tactics and sheer luck. The pilot ejected and was rescued.

A senior Serbian military official confirmed that pieces of the wreckage were removed by souvenir collectors, and that some ended up "in the hands of foreign military attaches". Efforts to get comment from China's defence ministry and the Pentagon were unsuccessful.

Parts of the F-117 wreckage, including its left wing, cockpit canopy, ejection seat, pilot's helmet and radio, are exhibited at Belgrade's aviation museum. Zoran Milicevic, deputy director of the museum, said: "I don't know what happened to the rest of the plane. A lot of delegations visited us in the past, including the Chinese, Russians and Americans ... but no one showed any interest in taking any part of the jet."

Zoran Kusovac, a Rome-based military consultant, said the regime of the former Serbian president Slobodan Milosevic routinely shared captured western equipment with its Chinese and Russian allies. "The destroyed F-117 topped that wish-list for both the Russians and Chinese," Kusovac said.

China's multi-role stealth fighter – known as the Chengdu J-20 – made its inaugural flight on 11 January, revealing dramatic progress in the country's efforts to develop cutting-edge military technologies. It is at least eight or nine years from entering service.

Russia's Sukhoi T-50 prototype stealth fighter made its maiden flight last year and is due to enter service in about four years. It is likely that the Russians also gained knowledge of stealth technology from the downed Nighthawk.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/jan/23/china-stealth-fighter-us-technology

Problemas de geografia na versão chinesa do Google Earth

Versión china de Google Earth "se aplaza" en geografía

PEKÍN. Tianditu, la versión china de Google Earth, está despertando sorna entre los internautas por los errores geográficos y toponímicos que recoge, y no solamente fuera de su geografía, como las misteriosas ciudades llamadas “Unk” en España o en el Reino Unido.

por

EFE

Los foros chinos, la prensa independiente del país asiático y los internautas globales están comprobando cómo China ve el mundo tras condenar al ostracismo a Google en su territorio: Al sur de Londres, al oeste de Madrid y en cientos de ubicaciones de todo el territorio mundial se repite la localidad “Unk”, para muchos una abreviatura del inglés “unknown” (“desconocido”).
En el territorio español el régimen comunista resucita la nomenclatura franquista con términos como la “Seo de Urgel” o erróneamente denomina “Ovido” a la capital de Asturias. Aunque en el general de la península, los técnicos chinos han hecho desaparecer al País Vasco, éste emerge al acercar el mapa, algo similar a lo que sucede en Turquía, donde Tuanditu barre de un plumazo la capital, Estambul, en una visión general, mientras que en otra más cercana, la ciudad vuelve a aparecer, pero al lado de su antigua nomenclatura, “Constantinopla”.
Los errores se multiplican en América Latina, Europa y el resto del planeta, pero también en casa. Hainan, la provincia insular del sur de China, está situada en Japón, mientras que la provincia china de Cantón (china meridional) aparece en Corea del Sur.
La famosa plaza de Tiananmen, donde en 1989 el ejército chino mató a cientos de estudiantes pacíficos y emblemática de Pekín, aparece en un restaurante de Shanghái, la segunda ciudad del país, y la Gran Muralla, cuatro de cuyos tramos se ubican cerca de Pekín, está al sur del río Yangtsé, según Tianditu.cn.
Estos y otros cientos de errores están haciendo las delicias de los internautas más irónicos, que el jueves leyeron sobre la inauguración de Tianditu que su sistema era “superior” a otros mapas digitales como el de Google, en palabras del Buró Estatal de Topografía de China.
Según el régimen chino, que mantiene una fuerte censura sobre la red y el año pasado mantuvo un largo pulso contra la multinacional Google por la defensa que ésta hizo de la libertad de expresión, Tianditu “ofrece información geográfica precisa, completa y oportuna para ayudar a la gente a encontrar lugares en China y a planear sus vacaciones”.
No obstante, los usuarios del nuevo sistema se están armando de paciencia para encontrar los destinos que buscan, ya que las búsquedas devuelven resultados muy fuera de lugar.
“Tianditu hará más fácil la vida de la gente”, aseguró el jueves el director del buró, Min Yiren, al presentar el servicio. “Ayudará a localizar cajeros automáticos, bancos y baños públicos con facilidad”, dijo citado por la prensa estatal. Sin embargo, si el usuario chino busca Haining, en la provincia oriental de Zhejiang, el mapa devolverá Herning, en Dinamarca; mientras que en las búsquedas de Taiyuan, Shanxi, Tianditu lleva a Thai Nguyen, Vietnam; y al introducir Lanzhou, la capital de Gansu, la búsqueda lleva hasta Hiiraan, Somalia.
En cuanto a facilitar los viajes al extranjero, si se busca la distancia entre dos ciudades japonesas, Tokio y Kioto, situadas a 513 kilómetros de distancia, Tianditu indicará, curiosamente, que están juntas y que se tarda “un minuto” en viajar de una a otra.

http://www.abc.com.py/nota/version-china-de-google-earth-se-aplaza-en-geografia/

¿China vs Estados Unidos o China con Estados Unidos?

¿China vs Estados Unidos o China con Estados Unidos?

Guillermo Almeyra

Dos días antes de viajar a Estados Unidos para encontrarse con el alicaído Barack Obama, el presidente chino, Hu Jintao, había declarado que la preminencia del dólar era cosa del pasado y había condenado indirectamente su devaluación para promover las exportaciones estadunidenses. Es más, desde hace rato los chinos consideran despectivamente eso que llaman siempre billete verde para subrayar que el dólar es puro papel pintado. Además, dado que tienen un billón (un millón de millones) de dólares en reservas y 700 mil millones en títulos del Tesoro de Estados Unidos y en títulos de inversión estadunidenses, y sólo 300 mil millones en otras divisas, si decidieran vender sus dólares y colocar sus reservas en otros títulos y monedas, la economía de Estados Unidos podría sufrir un durísimo golpe.

Como las reservas de China se inflan mensualmente en 18 mil millones de dólares, y puesto que se calcula que a finales de esta década –dentro de apenas nueve años– el billón actual se convertiría en dos billones, no faltaron, por tanto, quienes, llevados por un análisis superficial del aspecto monetario del problema, plantearon que era inminente el cambio chino a otro patrón monetario, y veían como posibles candidatos al euro (a pesar de que ya se veía venir la crisis europea) e incluso al rublo y una canasta de monedas de los llamados países emergentes. No se daban cuenta, al excluir lo político, sin lo cual lo económico no existiría, de que, detrás del dólar y de la imposición al mundo de una moneda que el gobierno de Washington puede imprimir y devaluar según le plazca, la garantía principal era y son, como siempre lo han sido en la historia de todas las potencias, las armas y las tropas del complejo militarindustrial que gobierna Estados Unidos.

Este país, en efecto, no es un tigre de papel, como decía Mao Zedong, pero sí es un tigre viejo, enfermo, lleno de heridas, aunque a pesar de eso sigue siendo el animal más potente de la selva capitalista mundial. Y, además de la hegemonía militar indiscutida (posee más armas que todos sus posibles adversarios juntos y tiene un presupuesto militar declarado o escondido que más que duplica el de todos ellos), posee también la hegemonía cultural. ¿Acaso China y los llamados países emergentes no imitan el modelo productivo y de consumo de Estados Unidos, y el capitalismo que está desarrollando el Partido Comunista chino desde el poder no es calco y copia del yanqui?

Esto último no es para nada secundario: en el tormentoso pasado chino, todas las invasiones que llegaban a dominar el país sucumbían ante su cultura y se sinizaban, porque ésta era superior y asimilaba a los bárbaros, pues éstos eran militarmente más fuertes, pero inferiores en la batalla de las ideas, de las costumbres y las técnicas. Ahora, en cambio, China está siendo conquistada por la americanización, sin necesidad de invasión, y la colonización y macdonalización de su vieja cultura es algo gravísimo para la nación asiática, donde nació la civilización, y para el mundo, todo.

Ahora bien: la crisis actual es sistémica, del capitalismo, de la que no se sale con más capitalismo, sino sólo mediante una terrible reducción del nivel de ingreso y de la calidad de vida de los habitantes del planeta, especialmente de los oprimidos de todo tipo y de los trabajadores, diezmando a la población actual y causando un inmenso desastre ambiental o, por el contrario, mediante una alternativa al capitalismo apoyada en rebeliones y movilizaciones populares en todas partes.

China y Estados Unidos optan por la misma vía capitalista. Los países con muchas reservas, como China, pero también los emiratos árabes del Golfo, creen en efecto poder sortear la crisis comprando y explotando gran cantidad de tierras y gran cantidad de productos en África o en América Latina. Eso, además de convertir en colonialistas a esos países –que fueron colonias hasta la mitad del siglo pasado–, los lleva a chocar con los intereses de Estados Unidos y de otras potencias medias, como las europeas, o a trabajar como agentes de Washington en esas regiones. Además, fomenta y consolida el nacionalismo dominador y excluyente entre sus respectivas poblaciones y el nacionalismo anticolonial, hoy antiyanqui, después antichino, en los países donde compran tierras y bienes, empeorando la vida de sus habitantes.

China, además, sostiene el dólar con sus adquisiciones de empresas (Hu Jintao hará compras en Estados Unidos por un valor de 42 mil millones más) y sostiene al gobierno estadunidense, que no puede resolver el problema de sus 47 millones de pobres, de los 15 millones de desocupados, de los inmigrantes orientales y latinos que se transforman en pretexto para un nuevo estallido del racismo y de la violencia siempre presentes en el american way of live, que es excluyente, racista, imperialista.

China, que necesita tiempo y dinero para desarrollar su mercado interno y convertirlo en factor principal de su economía, que está basada en la exportación, no va a revaluar su moneda porque se lo pida Obama (lo hace sólo al 3 por ciento anual), pero va a necesitar mantener grandes importaciones de alimentos si rompe su estructura agraria actual aumentando la productividad en el campo y modernizándolo. Eso significa que el costo interno de la alimentación será más caro, que se presentará un problema mayor que el actual con la emigración campesina en busca de empleo, que el mismo costo de la mano de obra industrial china aumentará. O sea, en pocos años China será diferente mientras Estados Unidos tendrá muchos más problemas que ahora. El plan de cooperación a 30 años ofrecido por Obama a Hu Jintao suena demasiado irrealista en perspectiva, aunque en lo inmediato, China y Estados Unidos están unidos por la misma cuerda capitalista asfixiante.

http://www.jornada.unam.mx/2011/01/23/index.php?section=opinion&article=016a1pol