"Desde mi punto de vista –y esto puede ser algo profético y paradójico a la vez– Estados Unidos está mucho peor que América Latina. Porque Estados Unidos tiene una solución, pero en mi opinión, es una mala solución, tanto para ellos como para el mundo en general. En cambio, en América Latina no hay soluciones, sólo problemas; pero por más doloroso que sea, es mejor tener problemas que tener una mala solución para el futuro de la historia."

Ignácio Ellacuría


O que iremos fazer hoje, Cérebro?

domingo, 18 de novembro de 2007

Mais uma de Chávez e El Rey

Guillermo Almeyra

Venezuela en la encrucijada

Toda la vociferación sobre el incidente provocado en la Cumbre Iberoamericana de Santiago de Chile por el Borbón ahijado de Franco no es más que una pantalla de humo destinada a distraer la atención del intento de desestabilizar al gobierno democrático y constitucional de Venezuela y, al mismo tiempo, una parte de ese intento mismo. Los medios venezolanos de oposición (o sea, prácticamente todos) y los internacionales buscan, en efecto, preparar sicológicamente un golpe de Estado civil-militar creando la falsa sensación de que Hugo Chávez está solo, aislado, sin otro apoyo que unos pocos pares tan débiles como él. En toda esta campaña el momento clave será el referéndum sobre la Constitución, ya que la oposición de derecha, si su NO obtiene alrededor de 40 por ciento, tratará de alegar que en realidad es mayoritaria pero le hicieron fraude, para arrastrar a un sector vacilante de las clases medias detrás de la oligarquía y, sobre todo, para conseguir respaldo en el sector más conservador de las fuerzas armadas, preparado ya por las declaraciones del ex ministro de Defensa chavista, general Raúl Baduel.

El poder popular, los concejos municipales, la entrega de casi 2 millones de hectáreas a los campesinos, desde el punto de vista de los capitalistas y, simplemente, de los venezolanos ricos –que son racistas y consideran inferiores a los trabajadores, oscuros de piel–, son medidas intolerables. Ni hablemos de las trasnacionales que, aunque sigan ganando grandes sumas, temen el momento en que podrían ser expropiadas. No faltó quien “teorizara” que el socialismo del siglo XXI se haría en Venezuela con el apoyo de las trasnacionales, utilizando los más modernos medios de control electrónico y con la participación activa, en su liderazgo, de gente como Baduel, supuestamente “científica”. Pero la lucha de clases, sin la cual no pueden crearse las bases más elementales del socialismo, ya que éste requiere un salto en la conciencia política y en la capacidad de decisión de los trabajadores (en el sentido más amplio de esta palabra), se da como siempre a lo bruto y pasa por la construcción de poder en la base, lo cual expulsa hacia la derecha a los grandes capitalistas, como los que dirigen las trasnacionales, y a los conservadores en el aparato estatal, es decir, a los Baduel, en las fuerzas armadas, y a muchos apparatchiks y gobernadores, en el campo civil. Esa lucha de clases divide y subdivide todos los sectores: hay derechistas golpistas y hay otros, más realistas, que temen que el fracaso de su aventura radicalice aún más a un régimen donde todavía tienen cabida y del cual pueden aprovecharse; y hay sectores del centro político que, bajo la presión de los acontecimientos, se acercan a la derecha, que los utilizará. La regla en una revolución, por lo tanto, sigue siendo la de Dantón: audacia, cada vez más audacia. La alianza entre centro (Baduel) e izquierda (Chávez) sería fatal, en cambio, porque el centro es ya derecha y la alianza con él equivale a la claudicación, como hizo Juan Domingo Perón en 1955 cuando capituló ante el general Eduardo Lonardi, jefe del golpe pero no fascista, que poco después fue defenestrado por los gorilas, que hasta entonces lo ponían en primer plano.

Fidel Castro le advierte a Chávez que es peligroso que siga con su costumbre del “baño de multitudes”, mezclándose con la gente que le aplaude. El magnicidio es una posibilidad muy real, sobre todo porque nadie duda de que Chávez ganará el referéndum próximo, así como ganó aplastantemente todas las anteriores elecciones (y, hay que agregar, lo hará poderosamente ayudado por el repudio a la prepotencia del Borbón fascistoide que educó Franco y por el neocolonialismo de los burgueses españoles). Pero el peligro real, más que el magnicidio, es el “efecto Baduel” en los mandos superiores de las fuerzas armadas venezolanas, ya que en los inferiores la influencia chavista es decisiva. En realidad, si no ha habido pronunciamientos de otros jefes militares por lo menos en situación de retiro, como suele suceder en momentos pregolpistas, es porque sobre el ejército hay una fuerte vigilancia popular, porque las fuerzas armadas están divididas horizontal y verticalmente (entre opositores y chavistas, y entre legalistas y golpistas), porque un golpe alinearía automáticamente a Venezuela con Estados Unidos, y muchos militares son conservadores pero no agentes del imperialismo, y porque muchos golpistas potenciales temen la posibilidad de un enfrentamiento entre los propios uniformados, en el cual intervengan además las milicias civiles chavistas (o sea, una especie de España de 1936, pero en la América Latina de hoy).

Lamentablemente, el gobierno de Chávez, que es paternalista, traba la autonomía de los organismos de poder popular y, como también es verticalista, no quiere romper la disciplina de las fuerzas armadas llamando a desobedecer cualquier orden sospechosa ni quiere lesionar el prestigio de las mismas llamando a fortalecer y armar mejor a las milicias civiles. Sigue imperturbable con su campaña electoral –que por supuesto es necesario hacer, aunque pierda importancia relativa– como si la lucha fuese sólo una normal contienda electoral. Sin duda Chávez, que es militar, astuto y combativo, debe estar movilizando los servicios de inteligencia castrenses (y, por las dudas, ya que pueden estar divididos), y debe estar usando también los servicios de inteligencia cubanos. Pero la protección real sólo se la puede dar la movilización preventiva popular, que influirá también en el seno de las fuerzas armadas y pondrá en estado de asamblea a los cuadros y oficiales de baja graduación, obstaculizando así la acción del imperialismo (que sólo puede comprar a unos cuantos altos oficiales) y la del acatamiento ciego de la disciplina vertical. Otra protección potente es la movilización urgente de los pueblos latinoamericanos contra la prepotencia imperialista y en apoyo de Venezuela, Bolivia, Cuba y Ecuador. Ambas podrían ser facilitadas por un llamado del presidente Chávez.

http://www.jornada.unam.mx/2007/11/18/index.php?section=opinion&article=026a1pol

Ameaça aos EUA?

Acuerdan líderes de migrantes crear un parlamento permanente en EU

Buscan que el tema sea decisivo en las campañas de los aspirantes a la presidencia

Exigen al Ejecutivo mexicano denunciar la militarización en el trato a indocumentados

En una decisión histórica, líderes de migrantes mexicanos acordaron constituir un Parlamento Permanente de Migrantes en Estados Unidos, plural e independiente de gobiernos y partidos políticos de ambos países, con la tarea principal de defender y promover los intereses de los migrantes que viven en ese territorio y ahora enfrentan una “terrible, racista y cruel andanada”.

Aprobado por el pleno del primer Parlamento de Líderes Migrantes Mexicanos que viven en Estados Unidos, que sesionó en el recinto de la Cámara de Diputados, esta nueva entidad será conformada por organizaciones sociales y personas físicas que compartan su objetivo, con representaciones en todo Estados Unidos. Su asamblea constitutiva se realizará en los primeros meses de 2008, tentativamente en Washington.

Además, los líderes mexicanos acordaron pedirle al presidente Felipe Calderón que exija al gobierno estadunidense que “cese la militarización” con la que tratan a los migrantes indocumentados, y que recurra a todos los cuerpos jurídicos internacionales para denunciar las violaciones a los derechos humanos y las muertes en la frontera.

Para cuidar que dicha asamblea constitutiva se realice en el tiempo acordado, ayer mismo se designó a un comité con la representación de organizaciones migrantes con presencia en 28 estados de Estados Unidos.

Las propuestas surgidas de las tres mesas de trabajo que sesionaron en San Lázaro fueron aprobadas por el pleno, luego de superar el rechazo de algunos de los líderes migrantes que también forman parte del Instituto de los Mexicanos en el Exterior (IME), vinculado con el gobierno federal.

En su rechazo subyace la idea de que este parlamento permanente termine por reemplazar al IME, organismo que tiene un carácter administrativo y está vinculado con el Ejecutivo federal mexicano como órgano consultor.

Durante el receso para la designación de la comisión que organizará la asamblea constitutiva, la diputada panista Dolores González arremetió contra dicho parlamento. “Doy por clausurado este acto, porque es un show perredista que no voy a tolerar ni a permitir”, dijo ante diputados. Este fue el segundo día en que la legisladora se manifestó contra los trabajos del parlamento migrante.

Varios de los líderes impulsores de la iniciativa explicaron después que los organismos pueden fungir de manera paralela sin ningún problema y ayudando, desde el ámbito de sus facultades, a la comunidad mexicana y migrante en Estados Unidos.

En las tres mesas en que se dividió el trabajo del parlamento hubo infinidad de planteamientos, entre los cuales destacan mayor presencia de líderes migrantes en representaciones legislativas, federales y estatales; mayores recursos a la red de protección consular, una partida especial para la repatriación de los restos de migrantes muertos en la frontera, reducción en las comisiones de empresas que se dedican al envío de remesas, mayores recursos para la atención de la educación de hijos de migrantes, ampliación del programa Tres por Uno, en proyectos sociales, y que el gobierno federal cree un programa de incentivos que facilite la inversión de los migrantes en territorio nacional.

Matiz apartidista

En la ceremonia de clausura de este primer parlamento migrante, el diputado perredista y coordinador general del encuentro, José Jacques Medina, criticó las interpretaciones partidistas a la creación de este nuevo organismo.

“Nos están diciendo aquí que este es un parto forzado, amañado y partidista, que 70 u 80 por ciento de ustedes aquí son partidistas, que pertenecen al PRD o a otro partido. Respondemos que la idea de este parlamento es crear un solo partido, porque PRD, PAN o PRI, nada pueden hacer en territorio estadunidense; pero un partido creado en defensa de nuestra nacionalidad, un partido llamado México es el que estamos tratando de crear aquí. Este congreso está creando ese partido”, dijo en medio de aplausos y gritos: “sin-fron-teras/ sin-fron-teras” y “sí-se-pudo/ sí-se-pudo”.

Uno de los objetivos de este parlamento permanente es influir para que la migración sea tema decisivo en la campaña presidencial en Estados Unidos y no tener que esperar hasta 2009 para hablar sobre el tema con el presidente y congresistas que resulten ganadores en los comicios de noviembre de 2008.

El País manda o Rey Juan Carlos I se calar

EDITORIAL

Valedores de la Corona

La Monarquía debe recuperar la discreción mantenida durante tres décadas

18/11/2007

La decisión de perseguir penalmente a dos caricaturistas de la revista El Jueves, condenados a sendas multas por injurias a los príncipes de Asturias, supuso el inicio de una sucesión de incidentes que culminó en la Cumbre Iberoamericana de Santiago de Chile, cuando el Rey mandó callar abruptamente al presidente venezolano, Hugo Chávez. Entre un episodio y otro tuvieron lugar los disturbios en los que se quemaron fotos del jefe del Estado, se conoció el contenido de una áspera conversación entre el Monarca y la presidenta de la Comunidad de Madrid y las relaciones con Marruecos han sufrido un deterioro cuyo alcance sólo se conocerá cuando Rabat dé alguna indicación de cuándo y con qué instrucciones se propone enviar de vuelta a su embajador. En más de tres décadas de reinado, la figura del Rey nunca había acaparado tanto protagonismo, sobre todo tanto protagonismo envuelto en polémica.

La Constitución de 1978 estableció un sistema de Monarquía parlamentaria en el que el Rey reina, pero no gobierna. A efectos prácticos, eso significa que es el Gobierno el que asume la responsabilidad política por los actos del Monarca, según se establece en el artículo 64 de la Constitución a través de la fórmula jurídica del refrendo. Se trata de un equilibrio delicado en el que, hasta ahora, don Juan Carlos había cumplido de manera impecable con la parte del pacto constitucional que le correspondía. Incluso en situaciones difíciles, como las que se complacía en provocar el ex presidente Aznar en cada ocasión en la que, pública y arrogantemente, exhibía el sometimiento constitucional del jefe del Estado a las decisiones políticas del Ejecutivo.

El refrendo parece estar deteriorándose en los últimos tiempos, quizá como resultado de la presión a la que la Monarquía está siendo sometida desde diversos ángulos, empezando por cierta prensa sensacionalista y de ultraderecha, siguiendo por fuerzas políticas extremistas de diverso signo y terminando por el untuoso cinismo de una parte de la Conferencia Episcopal. Sea cual sea el grado de responsabilidad que cupiese atribuir a la Corona, es el Gobierno quien tiene la responsabilidad de reconducir al cauce institucional las relaciones entre la jefatura del Estado y el Ejecutivo. En la adecuada gestión de esas relaciones radica una de las más importantes garantías para el funcionamiento interno del sistema político de 1978 y también para la eficacia del papel internacional que la Constitución reconoce al Monarca, en especial en relación con los países iberoamericanos.

Se incurre en una subrepticia contradicción cuando, como viene haciendo el Partido Popular, una fuerza política pretende presentarse como su único y más resuelto garante: tanto riesgo representa para la Monarquía que algunos partidos la rechacen como que otros compitan por obtener el monopolio de su defensa. El resultado es siempre que la jefatura del Estado pasa a ser objeto de controversia política, algo que no se debería trivializar si se tiene en cuenta que, en la Constitución de 1978, la Monarquía parlamentaria y el pacto de las libertades no aparecen como dos elementos separados. Plantearse la viabilidad de uno exigiría asumir la tarea de renegociar el otro, algo definitivamente inviable dada la fractura política que se ha instalado en España.

Los dos grandes partidos harían bien en dejar en paz los asuntos relacionados con la forma de Estado, colaborando para sacarlo del primer plano y evitando una insensata competición electoral para ver quién es el mayor valedor de la Corona. En estricta correspondencia, sería bueno que la Corona quedara de nuevo resguardada por la eficaz discreción mantenida durante las tres décadas más prósperas y estables de nuestra historia.

© Diario EL PAÍS S.L. - Miguel Yuste 40 - 28037 Madrid [España] - Tel. 91 337 8200

A isso chamam globalização e ocorrerá muito mais se proibirem pesquisas com animais!

SPIEGEL ONLINE - November 16, 2007, 02:15 PM
URL: http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,517805,00.html

USING AFRICANS AS GUINEA PIGS
Nigeria Takes On Pfizer over 'Killer Drug'

By Hauke Goos

The Nigerian government is taking on Pfizer, the world's biggest pharmaceutical company. It accuses the company of using a meningitis epidemic to test an unapproved drug on Nigerian children. Eleven children who participated in the tests died and others were left with disabilities.

Anas Mohammed who was one of the children tested with Pfizer's meningitis epidemic experimental drug. He is now suffering brain damage.

George Osodi

Anas Mohammed who was one of the children tested with Pfizer's meningitis epidemic experimental drug. He is now suffering brain damage.

There are days when Babatunde Irukera feels like nothing can go wrong -- not with the evidence that he has gathered, the letters, reports, protocols and all the witnesses. On days like this he believes that, after 11 long years, justice can finally be served for the children of Kano, for his homeland Nigeria, and for Africa.

On a morning in early October, Irukera was sitting in his hotel eating breakfast when an old man walked in. Irukera knew him -- they met the day before in court. The man was clutching a plastic bag.

He pulled a crumpled pink card from the bag, the torn-off half of a file folder. Irukera read "Pfizer Meningitis Study" in the upper left-hand corner of what was once a white label, and under that he sees a number: "Pf 0001." Patient 0001.

Babatunde Irukera is a lawyer and he is representing the state of Nigeria in a lawsuit filed against the American pharmaceuticals giant Pfizer. In 1996, tens of thousands of Nigerians fell ill during an outbreak of meningitis. Pfizer allegedly used the epidemic to test a new, unapproved drug. Eleven children died as a result, others were left deaf, blind or mentally handicapped. The case is not being tried in the US, but in Kano and the Nigerian capital Abuja.

The old man, a former journalist, had searched for two years to locate the participants in the drug test, and he finally hit pay dirt in the slums of Kano, the capital of the northern Nigerian state of the same name, where the disease took its heavy toll.

At 39, Irukera is a young lawyer. The cases he has handled so far have dealt with immigration rights and workplace discrimination. Pfizer is the largest pharmaceutical company in the world, with 100,000 employees, €32.8 billion in annual sales -- more than half the gross national product of Nigeria.

There are a total of four lawsuits filed against Pfizer, two in Kano and two in Abuja, with a civil lawsuit and criminal lawsuit each. The challenge for Irukera and his team is to match names with the numbers of the Pfizer patients and to give the names faces and real lives. In the statement of claim filed by Irukera, he wrote that Pfizer treated the patients like guinea pigs.

Pfizer responded that the mission in Nigeria was a "humanitarian gesture" -- in other words, an act of compassion.

Perfectly Timed Epidemic

In early 1996, Nigeria was hit by the one of the worst meningitis epidemics in history. Government officials have placed the final death toll at over 11,000.

At the time, Pfizer had just developed a new antibiotic called Trovan to treat a variety of infections.

Such drugs are used primarily in hospitals, mainly to treat blood poisoning. Their severe side effects make these antibiotics unsuitable for children. The risks of causing joint disease, abnormal cartilage growth and liver damage are simply too great.

As a rule, such agents are injected directly into the veins because that is the only way that they can work reliably. Initial tests had raised hopes that Trovan could be effective if swallowed in tablet form. Apparently, Pfizer hoped that this innovation would allow it to outpace market leader Bayer. The company believed that Trovan had the potential to become a "blockbuster" drug.

But Pfizer had a problem: In order to secure certification from the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) in the US, it still needed to conduct a clinical trial. Pfizer evidently hoped that it could use the study in Africa to furnish proof that the new drug was also safe for children. The meningitis epidemic in Nigeria came at just the right moment.

Such tests are extremely difficult to conduct in industrialized countries, where very few parents are willing to allow their children to take part in clinical trials. Consequently, companies often turn to poor countries and regions, such as India and South America, Bangladesh and Thailand -- and Africa. Patients in these parts of the world are so poor they don't care if the drugs they receive have been approved or not. Within just a few years, developing countries have been transformed into an enormous test laboratory.

In the spring of 1996, Pfizer offered to help the Nigerian government deal with the outbreak. In late March, a medical team headed for Africa.

When they arrived in Kano, the Americans revealed that they were not on a humanitarian aid mission, but had been sent to administer medical tests. Physicians selected 200 sick children for the study. They had to be at least three months old and younger than 18, and they could not be HIV-positive or malnourished. It takes an enormous amount of money to pave the way for launching a drug like Trovan on the market -- on average €600 million. Pfizer didn't want to make any mistakes. Half the children were given Trovan, the other half received Rocephin, a competing product from Swiss manufacturer Hoffmann-La Roche.

When word got out about the study five years later, a controversy erupted over fundamental questions, for which the Nigerian lawyer and the US drug company have totally different answers: Is it permissible to test a drug during a deadly epidemic? Is it acceptable to test drugs in the developing world that will benefit the industrialized world, using people who will never be able to afford this treatment?

Clearly, drugs have to be tested on people before they can be put on the market, and this involves a certain amount of risk. No one disputes that. The central question, however, is who should take the risks and whose life should be put on the line during these tests.

Babatunde Irukera is representing the Nigerian government in the case against Pfizer.

George Osodi

Babatunde Irukera is representing the Nigerian government in the case against Pfizer.

It is a warm morning in early October and Irukera is standing at the window of his ninth-floor office in Lagos and gazing at the sea. He hears the honking of mopeds, taxis and buses, he sees trucks and hawkers walking among the vehicles, selling everything from bananas and pruning sheers to phone cards.

Irukera is wearing a light-blue shirt with an immaculate white collar, a matching tie and a dark suit. If Hollywood ever decides to make a movie about the case, Denzel Washington would be perfect for the role.

In two hours, he plans to fly to Kano, the center of the epidemic 11 years ago, for an important court date. He wants to expand the lawsuit against Pfizer. This is a tactical legal petition, a warning signal to Pfizer. "So they understand how big their problem is," he says.

Irukera left his home country Nigeria 11 years ago. He and his wife emigrated to the US, where she completed an MBA and he pursued his career in law. In 1996, he passed his bar examination and is now a partner in a Chicago law firm. In the taxi to the airport, he has a mobile phone in his left hand and a Blackberry in his right hand. It's 2:30 p.m. and the first e-mails are arriving from Chicago. Irukera has dual nationality. He is fighting for his old homeland and challenging his new one.

In 1996, Trovan had never been tested orally on children suffering from meningitis. Often, meningitis patients suffer from nausea, and there is a high risk that they will vomit up the drug before it has a chance to take effect. Doctors treating the patients have very little time to prevent brain damage; only injections can allow them to be sure that the drug works quickly. Why in the world would they give these children Trovan orally?, Irukera asked himself. He realized that this just might be the case of his career.

It would appear that the Pfizer team broke a number of fundamental rules. Patient 0069, for instance, a little girl, received 56 milligrams of Trovan on the first day of treatment. Although her condition rapidly deteriorated, the doctors maintained this dose. On the third day, the girl died. International guidelines for clinical studies specify that patients who do not react to a test drug should be immediately removed from the study -- particularly since Rocephin, a reliable medicine, was available.

Irukera says that he thought long and hard over what could be said in favor of Pfizer in this situation, adding after a short pause, "I couldn't think of anything."

'We Are Human Beings'

In early May 2007, Nigeria filed a lawsuit against Pfizer. The statement of claim contains 85 charges, including fraud and deceit, fraudulent concealment, and conspiracy to commit an actionable wrong. Irukera believes he hasn't left anything out. The trials are still in the preparatory phase; Pfizer appears to be doing everything that it can to stall for time.

The next morning, in front of the courthouse in Kano, a representative of the public prosecutor's office is waiting for Irukera. The public prosecutor has decided to amend the charges against Pfizer to include manslaughter. Irukera smiles.

He is wearing a robe, a stand-up collar and a wig. After he enters the courtroom, Irukera slips the Blackberry back into his pocket. While he is presenting the case, the Pfizer lawyer, who is sitting beside him, suddenly offers him a deal. If Irukera withdraws his petition, he whispers, Pfizer would withdraw its own petition, which is lying prepared on the table. Irukera pauses for a moment, leans over to his colleague, and the two men speak in hushed tones. Then Irukera stands up straight again and continues with his presentation, as if there had never been an interruption.

After the proceedings, as he emerges again from the courtroom, someone from the People's Salvation Party is busy talking to a group of journalists in front of the building. The man is wearing a cap and a loose-fitting, traditional African robe. "This trial will go on forever," he says in a booming voice, and notes that the Americans have an army of lawyers who know all the tricks. "We Africans have no chance." He goes on to say that American companies are ruthless, "they don't care if 20,000 people die, as long as the profits roll in."

Following the court appearance, the public prosecutor holds a short press conference. He says that they have succeeded in identifying some of the numbers and initials on the lists of patients. "We are not numbers," he says. "We are human beings."

The next morning, Irukera flies to the capital Abuja, a 40-minute flight from Kano. He has an appointment with Idris Mohammed, the man who may be his star witness. Mohammed, 65, is a professor of medicine -- a stocky, affable gentleman who coordinated the relief work for the government at the time. Aside from meningitis, aid workers were fighting measles and cholera. It was, says Mohammed with a thin smile, a less than ideal situation for testing a new drug. Mohammed was the official who demanded letters of authority from Pfizer, and when these could not be produced, he ordered that the testing be stopped.

Back then, the team from the US company moved into the Infectious Diseases Hospital in Kano, directly adjacent to Doctors Without Borders. The parents of the sick children evidently believed that the Pfizer staff were members of the aid organization. It was not until Doctors Without Borders threatened to leave that Pfizer moved to two rooms in a ward that was a bit farther away, a one-story wing of the building with barred windows. A wire-mesh door shielded the team from the patients, who were crowded into the courtyard. The Pfizer physicians also hung a screen in front of the door.

Mohammed says that he met with the head of the American team right at the start. He asked him for whom the drug was intended, and explained that virtually no one in Africa could afford it. The doctor responded that the drug had been developed for the US and rich countries in Europe.

Once, says Mohammed, he saw how a young Pfizer physician removed cerebrospinal fluid from a child roughly four years old. It takes three, four drops at the most to diagnose meningitis. But according to Mohammed, he observed the doctor take more than 50 drops.

Mohammed was afraid that the life of the child was in danger. Cerebrospinal fluid protects the brain from concussions; it works as a shock absorber. An adult has approximately 120 to 200 milliliters of the liquid; a child has significantly less. If too much is removed, there is a risk that the brain stem may be pushed into the opening of the spinal chord. This can damage vital centers in the brain stem, in the worst case leading to paralysis or death.

"How much brain fluid do you think a child like this has?" asked Mohammed.

"Plenty," said the doctor.

"How much is 'plenty,' in your opinion?"

"More than a liter."

An hour later the child died.

Pfizer ignored Mohammed's calls to discontinue the testing. It wasn't until mid-April, after the 200th child had been treated, that the team packed their bags and flew home, says Mohammed. "The 'humanitarian gesture' ended right at the height of the epidemic."

Back then, meningitis spread through slums on the outskirts of Kano. The journey there is through dusty roads with deep potholes, past fruit stands, mosques and people collecting refuse. Men doze in the shade of gaunt trees; goats graze at a filling station. On a billboard, a sports accessories company advertises with the slogan "Celebrate. Success."

Zaharadeen Abdullah lives nearby in a small, narrow street. He is 18 years old and was seven when he caught meningitis. Zaharadeen is the sixth of 10 children; his parents can neither read nor write.

Before they test a drug on children, pharmaceutical companies have to acquire the parents' consent, even in the developing world. They have to explain to the parents that this is a drug in the test phase, and that its safety and effectiveness have not yet been established. The parents must be made aware that there are alternative medicines available that have already been tried and tested. And they have to know that they have the right to exit the study at any time.

They heard on the radio about the white doctors offering help, says Zaharadeen's mother. What did the white doctors tell her? "Nothing," she says. "They wrote down Zaharadeen's name, and then they gave him a pill. Then we went home."

Right from the beginning, Zaharadeen suffered from symptoms of paralysis. The muscles in his legs felt hot, he said. Even today, the pain is sometimes so intense that he has to lie on a mattress for weeks on end.

Just one street down lives Safiya Sani Isa, whose son did not survive the test.

Pfizer is the world's biggest pharmaceutical company with a market value of €200 billion.

Pfizer is the world's biggest pharmaceutical company with a market value of €200 billion.

Did the doctors present themselves as Pfizer employees?

"No," she says. "We thought they came to help our children. We didn't know that we had a choice between them and Doctors Without Borders."

For a long time, Pfizer refused to comment on the allegations. In 2001, company employees assured a Nigerian committee of inquiry that the test "was totally devoid of any commercial undertone."

Over the past few years, Pfizer has become a household name worldwide thanks to its potency drug Viagra. Boosted by the amazing success story of this and other products, within just three years the company's market value soared from €45 billion to over €200 billion. It was not the time to answer awkward questions.

But now, with this trial about to open, Pfizer has changed its strategy. The Americans want to regain control of the situation.

All contact with the company's headquarters in New York is organized by a woman who only goes by her first name: Sharon. She asks what the caller wants, who he has met in Nigeria, and who he is going to meet. Two days later, Dr. Jack Watters from the New York headquarters calls back. He is the Vice President for International External Medical Affairs, responsible for "corporate responsibility" and "human rights."

Watters has a British accent and a pleasant voice. He promises that he will do his best to answer every question.

Of course, says Watters, the parents gave their consent, but orally. He says that an authorized nurse then signed the release form in their name.

And the side effects? The risks for bones, joints and liver, especially for children?

None of this was known at the time, says Watters. "We didn't find out about the side effects until Trovan came out on the market, two years after the clinical test."

Watters has been with Pfizer since 1994, so he should know better. He should be aware that the side effects of the drug group that Trovan belongs to were documented no later than 1992. What's more, the Pfizer employees wrote in their own test protocol in 1996 that there was a significantly higher rate of joint problems among the children who were treated with Trovan. Fifteen percent of the test patients complained of pain, noted the Pfizer researchers, three times the rate for the reference drug.

And patient 0069? The girl who was subjected to further experiments, although her condition had worsened? What was her cause of death?

Watters said that he was not familiar with the details of this particular case, sorry.

Even following specific questions submitted to the company, Pfizer refused to comment on individual cases.

Recently, Irukera met in London with lawyers from the opposing party. Afterwards, he had the feeling that they had little idea what the trial was about. "I asked them questions, and every answer that they gave to my questions made the next answer even more difficult for them," says Irukera.

Now he is waiting at the airport in Abuja. It is late in the afternoon, and he has missed one flight and the next one has been postponed due to a storm over Lagos. But Irukera is totally calm, almost elated. Everything is going according to plan.

"Pfizer treated the Nigerians in Kano as if the life of a black child was worth less than the life of a white child," says Irukera. When he moved to Chicago, he admired the US for its self-confidence, for its greatness. But the more he found out about the Trovan test, the smaller the country became in his eyes. "Suddenly the Americans realize that they are dealing with blacks in Nigeria who are intelligent -- niggers with brains," he says, and laughs.

"Why don't you do these kinds of tests on children from Manhattan?" he asked Pfizer officials.

Surviving the 'Humanitarian Gesture'

Pfizer denies all the allegations. The company says that it is totally unclear whether the children died because of the tests or the after-effects of the disease. It appears that the corporation would rather make an out-of-court settlement. It would probably amount to a legal sensation if a Nigerian court were to rule that an American company had to pay billions of dollars in compensation.

Perhaps all of this is a question of power, not law, and no lawyer can change that, no document and no victim who happened to survive.

Anas Mohammed is A. M., Pfizer's patient 0001.

Eleven years ago, his father and mother carried him to the hospital. He was five years old and weighed only 25 pounds. Now father and son are sitting on a bench in the shade. There is not a cloud in the sky and it is scorching hot outside.

Mohammed Mustapha, at the time did the doctors at the hospital explain anything to you?

"No."

Did anyone explain anything?

"No."

Did you have to sign anything?

"No."

Did you know that the doctors were not from Doctors Without Borders but from Pfizer, a pharmaceuticals company?

"No," says Mohammed Mustapha, and gives an unsure smile.

He pushes aside a straw curtain and rummages around in a box behind his bed. He is looking for the folder where he has kept Anas' medical documents all these years. Then he reappears with a white binder in his hand; he has saved every official document that he has ever received.

He still has stiff knees, says Anas, his son. For a long time, he received treatment for the condition, and things have improved with time. He survived the "humanitarian gesture," but he will never be healthy again. When he walks relatively long distances, the pain immediately returns.

Anas goes into his bedroom and after a few minutes returns with a pink plastic syringe in his hand. At the top of the syringe is a wheel, and when the plunger is pushed in, the wheel is supposed to spin and make sparks.

The wheel broke a long time ago, but Anas has kept the toy; it is the only one he has. He says that the people from Pfizer gave it to him after the final examination, as a reward.

Horowitz tem razão!

El final de la universidad tal como la conocemos

Bajo las pautas anteriores, los profesores tenían la obligación de contener su ardor, enseñar a los estudiantes a ser escépticos, examinar las pruebas, respetar las opiniones contrarias.

David Horowitz

En su última reacción a las quejas por la politización de la educación superior, la Asociación Norteamericana de Profesores Universitarios (AAUP) ha adoptado una opinión novel: "No es adoctrinamiento que los profesores esperen que los estudiantes capten ideas y apliquen el conocimiento que es aceptado como cierto dentro de una disciplina relevante". Bajo este precepto, propuesto en el reciente informe de la AAUP "Libertad en las aulas", los profesores ya no están sujetos a estándares de expresión "docente" o "científica" o "intelectualmente responsable", sino a lo que quiera que "sea aceptado como cierto dentro de una disciplina relevante". Con esta formulación, la AAUP torpedea la comprensión tradicional de lo que constituye una educación liberal y ratifica la transformación de la universidad que ya está bastante avanzada.
Desde los años 60 han aparecido muchas disciplinas académicas recién creadas que no son resultado de avances académicos o científicos, sino de presiones políticas ejercidas por imposición de sectas ideológicas.
La disciplina de Estudios de la Mujer, el más importante de estos novedosos campos, reconoce abiertamente su origen en un movimiento político y define su misión educativa en términos políticos. El preámbulo de la Constitución de la Asociación Nacional de Estudios de la Mujer proclama:
Estudios de la Mujer debe su existencia al movimiento de liberación de la mujer; el movimiento feminista existe porque las mujeres están oprimidas. Los estudios de la mujer, diversos como sus componentes son, tiene como su objetivo más elevado una visión de un mundo libre no solamente de sexismo sino también de racismo, prejuicios de clases, prejuicios heterosexuales, racismo de edad -- libre de todas las ideologías e instituciones que consciente o inconscientemente han oprimido y explotado a algunos para ventaja de otros. … Estudios de la Mujer pues está equipando a las mujeres no solamente para ingresar en la sociedad en conjunto como seres humanos productivos, sino para transformar el mundo en uno libre de toda opresión.
Ésta es la declaración de una causa política, no de un programa de inquietud académica.
La AAUP ha dado a conocer su defensa del adoctrinamiento completamente consciente del hecho de que estas disciplinas académicas nuevas conciben su misión como utilizar las aulas para inculcar una ideología a sus estudiantes. Estos programas incluyen, además de Estudios de la Mujer, Estudios Afroamericanos, Estudios de Paz, Estudios Culturales, Estudios Chicanos, Estudios Homosexuales, Estudios Post-Coloniales, Estudios Blancos, Estudios de la Comunicación, Estudios Comunitarios, y disciplinas politizadas recientemente tales como Antropología Cultural o Sociología.
En la Universidad de Santa Cruz, el departamento de Estudios de la Mujer se ha rebautizado realmente como "el Departamento de Estudios Feministas" para plasmar que se trata de unas instancias de formación política. No ha habido una palabra de queja o advertencia procedente de los administradores de la universidad o la AAUP.
Bajo la nueva doctrina de la AAUP, estos credos sectarios están protegidos del escrutinio del método científico. En la nueva administración, el control político de una disciplina es la base adecuada para censurar el debate crítico. La idea de que el poder político puede establecer "la verdad" es una concepción tan contraria a los fundamentos intelectuales de la investigación universitaria moderna que el comité de la AAUP no podría mencionarlo tan abiertamente. De ahí el falso compromiso de "la verdad dentro de una disciplina relevante".
Hace algunos años, Robert Post, de Yale, uno de los miembros del subcomité de la Asociación Norteamericana de Profesores Universitarios que redactó el informe, resumía los principios que habían regido la administración universitaria durante casi un siglo.
Una "premisa clave" de la clásica Declaración de Principios de la Libertad y la Enseñanza Académica de la AAUP de 1915, escribía Post, "es que los integrantes del claustro deben ser entendidos como expertos profesionales en la producción de conocimiento". Post explica, "La misión de la universidad que defiende la ´Declaración´ depende de una teoría del conocimiento particular.
La ´Declaración´ no presupone solamente que existe el conocimiento y que puede ser articulado por los académicos, sino también que es impulsado a través de la libre aplicación de formas de investigación altamente disciplinadas, que corresponden a grandes rasgos con lo que [el filósofo] Charles Pierce llamaba en tiempos ´el método de la ciencia´ en contraposición al ´método de la autoridad´".
El método de la autoridad es precisamente el método recomendado ahora por la AAUP -- la autoridad de la disciplina. Virtualmente todo departamento de Estudios de la Mujer de todo el sistema universitario imparte un plan de estudios basado en la controvertida tesis de que el género "se construye socialmente". Estudios de la Mujer plantea y explora esta afirmación doctrinal como si fuera una verdad establecida, y se espera que los estudiantes de Estudios de la Mujer la apliquen como conocimiento.
La construcción social del género, sin embargo, es simplemente nomenclatura académica para la primacía de lo adquirido por encima de la naturaleza, una idea esencial para un movimiento ideológico -- el feminismo radical -- que propone el uso de medios políticos para remodelar las relaciones sociales. Pero la propia afirmación es refutada. Es refutada por los descubrimientos de las neurociencias modernas, la psicología evolutiva, y la biología (como saben los lectores de The Blank Slate, de Steven Pinker).
Obligar a los estudiantes a aceptar como verdad una doctrina que es controvertida entre los científicos de ciencias biológicas es precisamente lo que se pretende mediante el adoctrinamiento. Para el momento en que su informe era finalizado, una nueva edición de la revista oficial de la AAUP, Academe, ofrecía dos artículos en defensa del adoctrinamiento feminista de los estudiantes universitarios.
El primero era "Enseñanza apasionada", de la presidenta de la delegación de la AAUP, Pamela Caughie, directora del departamento de Estudios de la Mujer de la Universidad de Loyola. Caughie escribía: "Pienso que hago bien mi trabajo cuando los estudiantes pasan a ser practicantes del análisis feminista y comprometerse con la política feminista". Esta es la postura de un misionero que pretende modelar a sus estudiantes en el dogma feminista, no la de un profesor que pretende educarlos en materia de la mujer.
En el segundo artículo, la profesora Julia Kilmer, del Olivet College, describe la necesidad de exponer e intimidar públicamente a los estudiantes "que se resistan" a tal adoctrinamiento y sugiere cómo hacer esto. La publicación de dos artículos así a duras penas se puede clasificar de coincidencia. Revela la decadencia en la que hoy se encuentra la Asociación Norteamericana de Profesores Universitarios.
Es una decadencia en declive en más de un sentido. La doctrina de "la verdad dentro de una disciplina relevante" abre la universidad a las formaciones políticas. Suponga que los antagonistas a la teoría de la evolución de Darwin establecieran el campo académico de Estudios de Diseño Inteligente. ¿Qué principio académico les impediría impartir sus cuestionadas teorías como verdad? Lo mismo se aplicaría a los teóricos de la conspiración del 11 de Septiembre, o los activistas de los derechos de los animales, o de los racistas -- en la práctica, de cualquier ideología que fuera capaz de tomar el control de un departamento universitario y estructurar su plan de estudios como nueva "disciplina académica".
Algunos defensores de la postura de la Asociación Norteamericana de Profesores Universitarios afirman que el adoctrinamiento en realidad no es adoctrinamiento si el estudiante puede poner objeciones a la versión partidista de un profesor en el aula sin miedo a represalias. ¿Pero cómo iban a saber los estudiantes que no hay penalización por rehusar apoyar las premisas políticas de un profesor? ¿Cómo tratarían con las amenazas de la profesora Kilmer de "exponerles públicamente" y quebrar su "resistencia", o con la presión implícita en la "enseñanza apasionada" de Caughie?
Hasta el término mismo "enseñanza desapasionada" es una salida significativa de un entendimiento más antiguo de la educación superior. La declaración de 1940 de la AAUP en materia de libertad académica, que forma parte de la plantilla de la mayor parte de las universidades modernas, afirma que los educadores y los docentes deben "abstenerse" en lugar de apasionarse, y deben mostrar el respeto apropiado a las opiniones divergentes: "En calidad de docentes y funcionarios educativos... [los profesores] deben en todo momento ser precisos, ejercer la contención adecuada [y] deben mostrar respeto a las opiniones de los demás".
Bajo las pautas anteriores, los profesores tenían la obligación de contener su ardor, enseñar a los estudiantes a ser escépticos, examinar las pruebas, respetar las opiniones contrarias, y apoyar el pluralismo de ideas sobre el que descansa la cultura democrática.
Proporcionar a los estudiantes los materiales que les permitirían sopesar más de una versión de temas controvertidos, y así aprender a pensar inteligentemente y pensar por sí mismos era su deber profesional. Es ese el propósito central de la universidad que ahora está traicionando la Asociación Norteamericana de Profesores Universitarios.

Precisando de ajuda do Lula? Vixi!

Guiné Bissau

Nino Vieira pede a Lula apoio para mobilizar ajuda internacional
O presidente da Guiné-Bissau, João Bernardo "Nino" Vieira, pediu hoje ao seu homólogo brasileiro, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, para mobilizar a comunidade internacional no sentido de ajudar este país africano.
"A Guiné-Bissau gostaria de poder contar com uma participação activa do Brasil na procura de vias que permitam a mobilização de assistência externa indispensável para a execução das importantes estratégias do governo", afirmou "Nino" Vieira num discurso, lido após a assinatura de acordos de cooperação com o Brasil.
O presidente guineense iniciou segunda-feira uma visita oficial de três dias ao Brasil com o objectivo de reforçar a cooperação entre os dois país, devendo regressar à Guiné-Bissau na sexta-feira.
As estratégias do governo da Guiné-Bissau são constituídas por três importantes pontos, que passam pela reforma do sector da Defesa e Segurança, Programa Mínimo de Saneamento das Contas Públicas e Programa de Emergência de Combate ao Narcotráfico.
Segundo o chefe de Estado africano, os "indicadores macro-económicos do país têm registado uma evolução positiva, mas a conjuntura continua frágil, devido, sobretudo, ao não desembolso dos montantes anunciados pelos parceiros de desenvolvimento na Mesa de Doadores de Genebra".
Sobre o tráfico de droga, "Nino" Vieira afirmou que o governo guineense já manifestou a sua vontade de erradicar o flagelo que ameaça a "jovem democracia" guineense.
Numa outra parte do seu discurso, o presidente da Guiné-Bissau abordou a cooperação entre os dois países, dando especial ênfase à cooperação económico-empresarial.
"Parece-nos relevante sublinhar que a cooperação económico-empresarial pode constituir um eixo importante da nossa parceria, tendo em conta as potencialidades existentes na Guiné-Bissau", afirmou "Nino" Vieira, referindo-se aos sectores das minas, energia, pescas, agro-indústria e turismo.
No quadro da Comunidade dos Países de Língua Portuguesa (CPLP), "Nino" Vieira, que detém a presidência em exercício da Conferência de Chefes de Estado e de governo da organização, sublinhou alguns dos êxitos alcançados pela comunidade.
Salientou, contudo, que os "desafios de reforço da cooperação intracomunitária e da cooperação entre a CPLP e outras instituições internacionais, bem como a necessidade de promoção de uma estratégia para a promoção de língua portuguesa no plano internacional carecem de maior atenção e de um impulso sério de todos os Estados membros".
Segundo "Nino" Vieira, a questão da Cidadania e Livre Circulação de Pessoas e a ratificação do Acordo Ortográfico são assuntos da ordem de trabalhos que reclamam atenção prioritária.
"A Guiné-Bissau está empenhada a dar passos nesse sentido o mais rapidamente possível", sublinhou.
No encontro entre os dois presidentes foram assinados protocolos de cooperação nas áreas do combate à malária, política, agricultura e comércio.

Vejam os países que mais investem em Moçambique! Pobre Moçambique!

Moçambique

Portugal recua para 7º na lista dos principais investidores, EUA lideram
Portugal caiu em 2007 da quinta para a sétima posição na lista dos principais países investidores em Moçambique, cujo "ranking" é liderado agora pelos Estados Unidos.
Depois de há oito anos ter liderado a lista dos maiores investidores em Moçambique, Portugal surge agora atrás de países como Suíça, Reino Unido, África do Sul, Tanzânia e China, de acordo com o Centro de Promoção de Investimento de Moçambique (CPI).
A seguir a Portugal surgem Canadá, Brasil e Zimbabué, ainda de acordo com os dados deste organismo público.
Os Estados Unidos passaram este ano a liderar a lista dos maiores investidores em Moçambique, devido ao projecto de construção de uma refinaria de combustíveis líquidos na cidade costeira de Nacala, província de Nampula (norte), avaliada em três mil milhões de euros.
Os Estados Unidos "nunca em nenhum outro momento liderou o grupo de investidores", mas passou a ocupar este lugar "por causa deste projecto isolado, que nem (sequer) reflecte a tendência crescente do investimento norte-americano" no país, destacou uma fonte do CPI.
De resto, o "ranking" dos maiores investidores estrangeiros em Moçambique tem sofrido flutuações consideráveis nos últimos anos, "ao sabor" de anúncios de investimentos.
A liderança de Portugal há oito anos resultou de fortes apostas feitas por investidores portugueses em sectores bancários e do turismo, lembrou o responsável pela área de Comunicação no CPI, Evaristo Cumbana.
"Os investimentos portugueses tornaram-se velhos", concluiu o responsável pela área de Comunicação no CPI.
Entre Janeiro e Outubro, o executivo moçambicano aprovou diversas propostas de projectos de investimento no país, com o potencial de criar aproximadamente oito mil novos postos de trabalho, incluindo alguns na área de agricultura e agro-indústria.
A maior parte dos investimentos feitos neste período foram, pela primeira vez, aplicados nas províncias de Nampula, norte, e Tete, centro, contra a habitual aplicação em Maputo, no sul do país.
Em termos sectoriais, as propostas de investimento são direccionadas para os recursos minerais (cerca de 89 por cento do volume total de investimentos), contra 83 por cento do volume de investimentos ao projecto de carvão de Moatize, na província de Tete.

Aviso ao Lula!

S Tomé e Príncipe

«Maldição» do petróleo atinge arquipélago, diz Pedro Vicente
O petróleo nem sempre é chave para o desenvolvimento e aumento do bem-estar das populações, defende o investigador Pedro Vicente, que fez um estudo sobre São Tomé e Príncipe, em que vinga a "maldição" dos recursos naturais.
Radicado no Reino Unido, o português Pedro Vicente, do Centro de Estudos e Economias Africanas da Universidade de Oxford, apresenta hoje em Lisboa, no Instituto de Investigação Científica Tropical as conclusões do "trabalho de campo" que realizou em São Tomé e Príncipe, onde a descoberta de jazidas de petróleo em águas profundas, por volta de 2000, acentuou o tráfico de influências, uma forma de corrupção.
Pedro Vicente explicou que o trabalho que realizou nos últimos dois anos, em parceria com outro elemento do centro de estudos, visou perceber quais os mecanismos da "maldição dos recursos naturais" que leva os governos de muitos países em desenvolvimento a desperdiçarem a oportunidade de vencer a pobreza e conquistarem um melhor nível de vida para a população em geral.
O "trabalho de campo" - é essa a designação que o investigador lhe dá - centrou-se em duas realidades bem conhecidas dos são-tomenses: a atribuição de bolsas de estudo e a compra de votos, o chamado "banho", uma presença incontornável nas eleições dos últimos anos, sobretudo nas legislativas e presidenciais realizadas em 2006.
Relativamente … compra de votos, o estudo centrou-se nas presidenciais realizadas em Julho de 2006, tendo como referência o que se tinha passado na campanha das legislativas, em Março do mesmo ano, e decorreu, com o apoio da Comissão Nacional de Eleições, a par de uma campanha de esclarecimento, tentando interiorizar nas pessoas que o voto é um acto da consciência de cada um, que nenhum dinheiro pode comprar.
"Não podíamos dizer …s pessoas que não aceitassem o dinheiro, porque em muitos de casos coloca-se uma questão de sobrevivência" explicou … Lusa Pedro Vicente, insistindo que o mais importante era que todos compreendessem que mesmo recebendo dinheiro, o acto de votar, em quem votar, continuava a ser uma decisão individual.
Escolhida uma amostra de 1 034 pessoas, estas foram entrevistadas antes e depois da votação e os resultados analisados numa base científica, nos moldes reconhecidos internacionalmente.
"Dos resultados apurados pudemos concluir que o 'banho' leva as pessoas a votar e que a compra de votos é efectiva: os eleitores votam em quem lhes pagou", adiantou o investigador, deixando claro que estas eleições não são livres, já que é o dinheiro que compra o poder e que a riqueza do petróleo alimenta toda esta corrupção.
No caso das bolsas de estudo, os resultados da investigação, que teve um período mais alargado (1994 a 2006) também foram preocupantes. Nos dois inquéritos feitos à população, em 2004 e 2006, sobressaiu a ideia generalizada de que as bolsas são para as elites e pouco têm a ver com as classificações obtidas pelos estudantes no final do secundário.
"A questão das bolsas em São Tomé e Príncipe é muito importante e faz a diferença entre um futuro de pobreza e uma vida de oportunidades, em que o curso superior é garantia de um estatuto, quer no estrangeiro quer no próprio país, onde os que ali voltam já são elite", afirma Pedro Vicente.
Por isso, 80 por cento dos inquiridos dizem que "o melhor que pode acontecer a uma pessoa é receber uma bolsa e ir para o estrangeiro", prossegue o investigador, alertando para a distorção existente entre as notas e a atribuição das almejadas bolsas.
Da análise feita, a relação entre as notas e a atribuição de bolsas surge distorcida, pois os escolhidos não são os que obtêm melhores classificações, mas os filhos das elites, neste caso através do tráfico de influências, de corrupção.
O que já acontecia em 1994 relativamente a umas dezenas de bolsas então atribuídas, sofreu um aumento de 10 por cento a partir de 2000, com o número de bolsas a atingir em 2003 as centenas (cerca de 300).
Ainda no que respeita … atribuição de bolsas, foi possível apurar uma forte identificação quanto aos apelidos dos bolseiros e dos detentores do poder, apontando uma clara influência do "status" no país numa escolha que se pretende criteriosa e transparente.

Até tu, Nova Zelândia?

O território estava «destinado» à Indonésia desde 1963
A integração de Timor-Leste na República Indonésia foi acordada secretamente em Washington por quatro potências anglófonas, em 1963, revelou à Lusa Moisés Silva Fernandes, investigador de ciências políticas e de relações internacionais da Universidade de Lisboa.
Por Henrique Botequilha
da Agência Lusa
Através da análise de documentos da época, Moisés Silva Fernandes verificou que altos responsáveis políticos do Reino Unido, Austrália, Estados Unidos da América e Nova Zelândia tiveram dois encontros em 1963, em Washington, onde "chegaram a acordo sobre a incorporação de Timor-Leste, numa política de apaziguamento em relação à Indonésia", afirma o investigador.
"Estes encontros foram secretos, Portugal nunca foi informado de nada", adianta.
Um dos documentos analisados por Moisés Silva Fernandes é um telegrama remetido em 13 de Fevereiro de 1963, pela embaixada australiana em Washington para o seu ministro dos Negócios Estrangeiros, em Camberra, no qual dava conta do acordo obtido pelas quatro partes, que nessa data se encontravam na capital norte-americana para a primeira das suas reuniões.
"Sobre Timor, todos concordámos que mais tarde ou mais cedo a Indonésia vai apoderar-se da parte portuguesa da ilha de Timor e todos à volta da mesa tornaram bem claro que os seus governos não estavam preparados para envolver forças militares para evitar esta situação", lê-se no relatório da diplomacia australiana.
Noutro dos documentos encontrados pelo investigador português no Arquivo Nacional da Austrália, e recentemente abertos à consulta pública, consta um outro texto, escrito pelo embaixador da Austrália em Jacarta para o seu primeiro-ministro, Robert Menzies, datado de 7 de Março de 1963 e com a classificação "top secret".
"Devemos ao mesmo tempo convencer os indonésios que não teremos objecções a uma eventual incorporação do Timor português na Indonésia, desde que isto venha a ocorrer através do uso de meios aceitáveis", afirma o diplomata australiano, confirmando o acordo obtido em Washington.
Em Outubro de 1963, os quatro países anglófonos voltaram a reunir consenso sobre Timor-Leste em Washington. "O ideal do nosso ponto de vista seria que os portugueses cedessem Timor de boa vontade e de um modo que a transferência para a Indonésia não seja o resultado de uma agressão ou de um movimento cínico apaziguador para o Presidente (indonésio) Sukarno, lê-se num documento secreto de preparação da diplomacia londrina para o segundo encontro quadripartido e agora encontrado por Moisés Silva Fernandes no arquivo do "Foreign Office" britânico.
Para o investigador português, a interpretação destes novos dados é clara. "Onde outros podem ver 'realpolitik', eu vejo cinismo", comenta.
A Indonésia invadiu Timor-Leste em 7 de Dezembro de 1975, 12 anos após estas reuniões secretas, e, com o silêncio das potências ocidentais, ocupou o território até à consulta popular de 30 de Agosto de 1999, cujo resultado conduziu à independência do país asiático de expressão portuguesa.
Moisés Silva Fernandes vai revelar as suas conclusões, do ponto de vista académico, sexta-feira, 16 de Novembro, num seminário na Universidade de Oxford sobre assuntos portugueses e lusófonos.
Mais tarde, planeia escrever um artigo sobre as suas revelações históricas a propósito de Timor-Leste, em inglês, na revista científica de estudos internacionais South European Society & Politics e incluir os novos elementos históricos, em português, num livro dedicado aos anos de 1974 e 1975 em Timor-Leste, a lançar em 2008.

Dos diferentes idiomas, escolher o menos ruim, o português!

Timor Lorosae

«Enraízamento do português é tarefa para duas gerações»
O "enraizamento" da língua portuguesa em Timor-Leste é "um esforço de longo prazo", que só estará completo dentro de duas gerações, na melhor das hipóteses, afirmou hoje em Lisboa o presidente timorense, José Ramos-Horta.
Ramos-Horta, que prossegue hoje a sua visita oficial de dois a Portugal, a primeira enquanto Chefe de Estado timorense, falava no Palácio de Belém após uma audiência de cerca de uma hora com o presidente Aníbal Cavaco Silva.
Questionado pela imprensa acerca dos progressos do ensino da língua portuguesa em Timor-Leste, que tem a oposição de alguns quadrantes, Ramos-Horta afirmou que "o desenvolvimento nota-se", mas que os resultados práticos surgirão mais tarde.
"Quem participou, como eu participei desde 2000/2001 na defesa desta opção [adopção do português como língua oficial], pode ver a melhoria na introdução, mas o esforço tem de continuar, é um esforço a longo prazo, são necessárias pelo menos mais duas gerações para que o português se enraíze", afirmou.
O presidente timorense lembrou que a história da língua portuguesa em Timor-Leste fez-se de "dificuldades e controvérsia", que obrigaram à necessidade de "esclarecer o povo [timorense] sobre a necessidade de introdução da língua portuguesa lado-a-lado com o tétum".
De todos os Estados da Comunidade dos Países de Língua Portuguesa (CPLP), Timor-Leste é o único que tem duas línguas oficiais.
Portugal e também o Brasil têm suportado os custos do ensino da língua, e, segundo Ramos-Horta, também o Estado timorense vai começar a fazê-lo, em 2008.
"O actual governo de Xanana Gusmão orçamentou, pela primeira vez, para 2008, os custos de receber 30 professores de português, incluindo para a Universidade", disse Ramos-Horta no Palácio de Belém.
Cavaco Silva veio depois apelar a que outros países da CPLP, nomeadamente Cabo Verde, participem no esforço de introdução do português em Timor-Leste.
"Todos os países da CPLP devem estar envolvidos nesta consolidação da língua portuguesa, ao lado do tétum em Timor-Leste. O Brasil já está, Cabo Verde pode estar, e outros países podem também estar", afirmou o presidente português.
"A língua é um elemento fundamental de identidade, principalmente no mundo global", disse o chefe de Estado, que manifestou a disponibilidade portuguesa para "acolher sempre" pedidos que venham a ser feitos por Timor neste domínio.
Cavaco Silva lembrou o papel de Portugal na independência timorense, e que Timor-Leste é actualmente o principal parceiro de cooperação português, estando actualmente em curso um programa indicativo com duração até 2010.
"A nossa relação com Timor-Leste é muito especial, de amizade e afecto, construída em décadas de luta, num tempo em que Portugal estava praticamente sozinho na luta pela liberdade e independência, juntamente com os timorenses. Portugal fará todos os possíveis para ajudar à consolidação das instituições democráticas e do progresso dos timorenses ", disse Cavaco Silva.
Portugal, frisou, está "à disposição" de Timor para continuar cooperação em "áreas centrais" como administração pública, segurança, educação, justiça.
Lembrou ainda os "muitos portugueses" envolvidos na cooperação em Timor, referindo-se em particular aos militares da Guarda Nacional Republicana e agentes da Polícia de Segurança Pública (PSP) que na missão das Nações Unidas (UNMIT) contribuem para a segurança do mais jovem país da Ásia.
"Confio no futuro de Timor-Leste. Podem contar connosco. Acredito que timorenses e portugueses, que partilham a mesma língua, conseguirão manter este laço de amizade, de fraternidade e construir um futuro melhor para todos os timorenses", afirmou o presidente da República.
Também Ramos-Horta salientou o papel da GNR e PSP, a cujo contributo, afirmou, se deve "a situação mais pacificada e estabilizada" no terreno, depois dos distúrbios de 2006.
A acalmia, afirmou, está a ter reflexos na economia, prevendo o Banco Asiático de Desenvolvimento (BAD) um crescimento do PIB na ordem dos 22 por cento este ano.
"É evidente em Díli a grande melhoria. São milhares de pessoas nas ruas, milhares de restaurantes. Não é tão evidente no interior, onde continua a haver menos actividade económica, e espero que o orçamento do novo governo venha reflectir as nossas preocupações que é de melhorar a vida das populações nas zonas rurais", disse Ramos-Horta.
Depois das declarações aos jornalistas, os dois chefes de Estado seguiram para um almoço no Palácio de Belém. Mais tarde, Ramos-Horta desloca-se à Assembleia da República.

http://www.noticiaslusofonas.com/view.php?load=arcview&article=19821&catogory=Timor%20Lorosae

A Líbia está certa! Os passaportes devem estar na língua do local visitado!

Visitors to Libya Must Provide Arabic Translation of Their Passports when Entering Country
14/11/2007 02:50:00

Libya authorities confirmed that Libya will turn away visitors from all over the world unless they provide Arabic translations of their passports.
They also said that regulations that require Arabic translation for all visitors to Libya is here to remain in effect and would be strictly applied in all points of entry to the country including road, air and sea.
The regulations have been in effect for over two decades and usually applied but with some lax sometimes.
Although the Western media has made the issue as if it was directed against Western visitors, the regulations have been applied to all visitors to Libya from all over the world.
Speaking after a meeting between Libyan officials and Western ambassadors in Tripoli, a Libyan diplomat was quoted by AFP on Monday as saying "the Libyan authorities said they had informed airlines in time about the rule change but that they had not in turn informed their passengers."
"Libya will not reverse its decision, nor will it take into consideration the international reaction" and uproar triggered by the new restrictions, a Libyan official told AFP.
"The West demands that we translate our passports into English and therefore we must act in kind. It is only normal," said the official.
"Travellers arriving with foreign language passports are perturbing officials at border posts and airports because these officials don't know foreign languages," he added.
On Sunday Libya turned back scores of passengers on a flight from Paris because they failed to provide Arabic translations of their passports.
Libya adopted Arabic as the country's sole language since the revolution in 1969, a policy that remained the consistent ever since.
"We must defend our Arabic language. There will be no compromise," he said.
According to the AFP as it quoted a Libyan aviation official, the measure could be in response to a decision to prevent Libyans with visas for the EU's Schengen border-free zone from entering certain European countries, notably France and Britain.

Não se assustem, mas o Egito tem planos nucleares!

From gas to nuclear

Hussein Abdallah* lays out the energy choices and pitfalls which pave the road to Egypt's nuclear plans

The oil and gas consumed by the Egyptian electricity sector has risen over the period 1952-2006 from less than one million tonnes to more than 21 million tonnes of oil equivalent (toe), of which natural gas was around 18.7 million tonnes or 88 per cent of total fuel consumed by the electricity sector. Hydro-electricity accounts for only what is equivalent to three million toe.

Granted that a nuclear power plant which takes 10 yeas to build in an industrialised country, would take 12 years in Egypt, our first nuclear reactor may not be operating before 2020. Therefore, the crucial question becomes: how could we cross the gap from now to the year 2020?

Egypt is already a net importing country of both oil and gas due to the fact that our share of both sources is not enough to cover our domestic consumption which increased over the period 1975-2006 from 7.5 million toe to 52 million toe, at an average annual growth rate of 6.5 per cent.

The development of our oil and gas resources is carried out under production-sharing agreements which allows a foreign oil company to explore for oil and gas, and, if a commercial discovery is found, the agreement would be extended to nearly 35 years. The foreign partner, who undertakes all exploration and production costs, starts recovering their costs as soon as production begins. They first receive a share of 40 per cent of total output to be valued in terms of US dollars, at the export price of oil or gas. The total dollar value is then deducted from the balance of the foreign partner total expenditures. Year after year, this procedure is repeated until the total cost balance is recovered.

The foreign partner is further entitled to a net profit share of 25 per cent of the remaining output, which is equal to 15 per cent of total output before cost recovery. What remains after the 55 per cent received by the foreign partner represents the Egyptian share. Views differ between 50 per cent and 63 per cent of total output as the long-term overall share of the Egyptian partner. Either way, this share has in recent years fallen short of satisfying the domestic needs. For example, out of total production of oil and gas of 71 million tonnes in 2006, the Egyptian share would range between 35-47 million toe according to either estimate. Domestic consumption of both sources was 52 million toe. Therefore, at least five million tonnes had to be purchased from the foreign partner shares in order to fill the gap.

To answer the crucial question of how to cross the gap to 2020, the choice becomes one of two: either we could expand gas production as we did when it jumped from 23 million toe to 45 million toe in two years (2005-2007), at nearly 50 per cent growth rate per year, in which case we would not need to purchase from the foreign partner, or alternatively, we could limit the gas output growth rate to such a level as to match only the growth rate of our domestic consumption, estimated at five per cent annually on average. The first choice would deplete gas reserves in the shortest period, probably long before 2020. The second choice would conserve gas production and extend gas reserves until we cross the gap and catch up with nuclear power in 2020.

The main point of this argument is the following: according to production sharing agreements, Egypt is entitled to purchase from the foreign partner whatever is needed to meet domestic consumption at a maximum price of $2.65 per million British thermal units (MBtu). Nuclear power becomes competitive, as we will later explain, only when the price of gas is higher than $6 per MBtu. Therefore, it is more economical to use gas at home even if we have to buy the whole share of the foreign partner which we are legally entitled to. The export gas projects were not good choices, considering gas economics which give priority to use it at home, as was previously explained in an article published in Al-Ahram Weekly 28 June 2007 under the title "Veto on gas exports".

Now, we will turn our focus to the most important aspects of nuclear power, which should be taken into consideration in any feasibility study, under two subtitles: nuclear worries and nuclear economics.

NUCLEAR WORRIES AND CONCERNS: Nuclear power generation is an internationally-involved industry, as compared with most domestic industries which are national by nature and require little or no international involvement. The most important aspects of such involvement are:

Concerns have been raised about proliferation risks created by the further spread of sensitive nuclear technology, such as uranium enrichment and plutonium reprocessing. This is both a domestic problem and an international one. Proliferation continues to raise public concerns in many countries and hinders the development of new nuclear power reactors. On the other hand, this has to be resolved to the satisfaction of the world community. Otherwise, the project would be challenged as it happened in the case of Iran's uranium enrichment.

Uranium is the prime source of fuel for nuclear reactors and it is explored for and found in nature. However, raw uranium has to be enriched to at least three per cent and manufactured to make the so-called "yellow cake" in order to be usable. Enrichment beyond 20 per cent makes uranium suitable to build an atomic bomb. Plutonium is a man- made material that could be used to generate electricity and/or make a bomb. Nuclear power advocates assure that uranium sources are abundant, widely distributed around the glob, and, therefore, they represent no constrain. However, there are strong indications that those resources may fall short in supply at a near point in future, as is the case with oil and gas. While the International Energy Agency (IEA) states that proven uranium reserves are sufficient beyond 2030, it also states that investment in uranium mining capacity and nuclear fuel manufacture capacity must increase significantly to turn "uranium in the ground into yellowcake" and to meet world increasing demand. The underlying assumption is that expected expansion is only that of the countries already using nuclear generation (31 countries). The new tendency of the West to let developing nations go nuclear is not accounted for in this forecast. In either case, the industrialised countries do not have to worry about nuclear security, because they already hold the major bottlenecks of this industry, including the hardware technology and uranium enrichment and fabrication. Therefore, if their nuclear interests conflict with those of the developing countries, it will be theirs which win.

Driven partly by rising expectations for nuclear power worldwide, uranium spot prices continued to rise in 2006, to nine times their historic 2000 low, reaching $72 per bound U3O8. However, in what may be taken as mitigating factor in this respect is a proposal submitted to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) by Russian President Vladimir Putin to create "a system of international centres providing nuclear fuel cycle services, including enrichment, on a non-discriminatory basis and under the control of the IAEA". Several additional proposals to assure supplies of enriched uranium in the event of political supply interruptions have demonstrated the will of states to develop new, international approaches to the nuclear fuel cycle.

Nevertheless, the IAEA conference, which considered the above proposals for assuring supplies of uranium-based nuclear fuel at one stage in a longer- term multilateral framework, has recognised that establishing such a fully developed, multilateral framework that is equitable and accessible to all users of nuclear energy, is a complex endeavour and requires a phased approach for both natural and low enriched uranium, as well as spent fuel management.

As for nuclear safety, indicators, such as those published by the World Association of Nuclear Operators, have improved dramatically in the 1990s. However, in some areas improvement has stalled in recent years. Also the gap between the best and worst performers is still large. The IAEA has developed, in cooperation with 28 of its members, the International Project on Innovative Nuclear Reactors and Fuel Cycles (INPRO) which completed a methodology that member states can use to evaluate and select innovative nuclear systems (INS) for development.

Safety of nuclear waste disposal is another crucial aspect of world nuclear concerns. Annual discharges of spent fuel from the world's reactors total about 10 500 tonnes of heavy metal (t HM) per year. By the end of 2004, approximately 280 000 tonnes of spent fuel had been discharged globally. Two different management strategies are being implemented for spent nuclear fuel. In the first strategy, spent fuel is reprocessed (or stored for future reprocessing to extract usable material (uranium and plutonium). Approximately one third of the world's discharged spent fuel has been reprocessed leaving about 190 000 t HM of spent fuel in storage. In the second strategy, spent fuel is considered as waste and is stored pending disposal. Based on more than 50 years of experience with storing spent fuel safely and effectively, there is a high level of confidence in both wet and dry storage technologies and their ability to cope with rising volumes pending implementation of final repositories for all high radioactive wastes. China, France, India, Japan, Russia and the UK either reprocess, or store for future reprocessing, most of their spent fuel. France has set goals for a reversible deep geological repository by 2015 and to open the facility by 2025. Canada, Finland, Sweden and the US have currently opted for direct disposal. The Finnish, Swedish and US repository programmes continue to be the most developed, but none is likely to have a repository in operation before 2020. The world's one operating geological repository is the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) in the US, but it will receive only waste generated by research and the production of nuclear weapons; no waste from civilian nuclear power plants.

Most countries have not yet decided which strategy to adopt. They are currently storing spent fuel and keeping abreast of developments associated with both alternatives. Therefore, developing nations, should carefully consider the disposal of nuclear waste in their feasibility studies, from both the technical and financial aspects.

If the Egyptian nuclear programme is to start operating, at best, by 2020 with expected economic life of 60 years, then decommissioning may not occur before 2080. This is a long period and many of the present day variables may drastically change. Since the technical and economic feasibility studies of a nuclear reactor must be calculated based on the length of its production life, then careful attention should be given to the above considerations. For example, capital costs of construction, decommissioning and waste disposal, which are the major component of total nuclear cost, are depreciated on the basis of electricity units produced over the life span of the reactor.

To conclude this chapter, it was anticipated that nuclear generation would decline, as ageing nuclear reactors (especially among the OECD nations) were expected to be taken out of operation and not to be replaced. But the role of nuclear power in meeting future electricity demand has been reconsidered more recently, given concerns about rising fossil fuel prices, energy security, and greenhouse gas emissions. In Europe, nuclear power is the largest source of electricity in eight countries and represents more than half electricity produced in four countries: France, Belgium Lithuania and Slovak Republic. However, many European countries had opted to phase out part or all of their nuclear capacity. For example, Lithuania and Slovak Republic agreed with the EU to shut down their capacity, and Belgium is to phase out its capacity.

Now, nuclear power is accounting for 16 per cent of world electricity production which was 2750 TWh (Tera or trillion Watts-hour) in 2006. At the end of 2006, there were 31 countries operating 435 nuclear reactors with installed capacity of 370 Giga-Watts (GW) (giga is a billion). A Reference Scenario forecasts world nuclear capacity to increase to 416 GW in 2030 at an average rate of 0.5 per cent annually. An Alternative Policy Scenario, which assumes greater use of nuclear power and lower CO2 emissions, forecasts nuclear capacity to grow to 519 GW in 2030 at an average growth rate of 1.4 per cent annually. Approximately 70 per cent of this growth will come from developing countries which account for 17 of the 29 reactors now being built, mainly in Asian countries. Non-OECD Asia is poised for a robust expansion of nuclear generation. For example, in China, electricity generation from nuclear power is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 7.7 per cent from 2004 to 2030, and in India it is projected to increase by an average of 9.1 per cent per year.

ECONOMICS OF NUCLEAR POWER: Concerns over surging fossil prices and rising CO2 emission revived nuclear power which is proven technology for large scale baseload generation. The existing plants in OECD countries and the countries of non-OECD Europe and Eurasia (including Russia) are expected to be granted extensions to their operating lives to 60 years.

As shown above, economics are not the only factors affecting nuclear generation. Yet, economics, as in all other sources of energy, play crucial roles, most important of which are:

Nuclear power is capital intensive because building a reactor would cost between $2-3.5 billion. The discount rate (interest on loans) plays a major role in nuclear financing. The long lead period of preparation and construction (10-12 years) requires spending with no output to sell. Moreover, as the loan period extends, the discount rate becomes higher. Therefore, government has to reduce investment risk in order to support the nuclear economics.

The most important factor affecting competitiveness of nuclear power is the investment cost as represented by the discount rate and plant economic life. Depending on various factors of the economic components, capital cost would range between $2000- 2500 per one kW installed capacity. By comparison, the capital cost of using the combined cycle gas technology (CCGT) in electricity generation is only $550-650.

In developing countries, including Egypt, more than 70 per cent of nuclear capital and operating expenditures have to be spent in foreign exchange, because most of the project components are provided by industrialised countries.

Fuel cost is a small component of nuclear power total production cost, accounting for only $0.4-0.6 per million Btus (MBtu), while it ranges in CCGT between $5-7 MBtu in 2006. Therefore, nuclear power cost is less vulnerable to fuel-price change than coal or gas-fired generation. Uranium cost is around five per cent of total cost and becomes 15 per cent after treatment (enrichment and fabrication), while gas fuel represent 75 per cent of total cost. Therefore, increases in gas and coal prices improve the nuclear competitive position. A 50 per cent increase in uranium, gas and coal prices would cause costs to rise by only three per cent in nuclear power and by 20 per cent in coal and by 38 per cent in CCGT. This would endow nuclear costs with greater stability and predictability and make it more attractive to heavy users of electricity. In Finland and France, electricity- intensive industrial users expressed interest in long- term fixed price contract of electricity which, in turn, facilitate finance investment in new nuclear plants.

In a scenario of high discount rate, where nuclear generating costs are between 6.8-8.1 cent kWh, nuclear power would be competitive with gas-fired generation if long-term gas price is above $6.60 MBtu (corresponding to $65 a barrel of oil). There are other scenarios which expect construction and operating risks to be mitigated and the new nuclear cost to be 4.9-5.7 cents per kWh. In such cases nuclear would be cheaper than gas-fired electricity if gas price is above $4.70-5.70 MBtu.

The introduction of a value for limiting carbon emission also improves the competitiveness of nuclear power. In Europe and the US where coal is the major fuel for electricity generation, $10 per tonne of CO2 emitted make nuclear compete with coal. It is the more so, considering that average value of CO2 tonne in EU Emission Trading Scheme in 2005 was 18.3 euro per tonne ($23 and above).

Regional differences, size of reactor, site location and whether it contains one reactor or more, all affect costs. No one approach to nuclear energy supply carries the same costs and benefits for different countries. Therefore, we have to be very careful in studying and selecting the best approach that really suits our needs within an integrated and comprehensive strategy for energy.

* The writer is a consultant in energy economics.

C a p t i o n :

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Al-Ahram Weekly Online : Located at: http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2007/871/ec1.htm

Quer notícia dos coptas do Egito?

Coptic conundrum

Questions about a possible successor mar the 36th anniversary of Pope Shenouda III's consecration, reports Gamal Nkrumah

His Holiness Pope Shenouda III, the 117th Pope of Alexandria and Patriarch of the See of Saint Mark, author of more than 100 books and a prolific columnist and public speaker, officiated over celebrations marking the anniversary of his consecration on Wednesday.

Speculation about his health has prompted intense debate over the succession to the papacy, both in private, among members of the Coptic Christian community in Egypt and overseas, as well as in the press. Several papers have reported that he is suffering from kidney failure that requires dialysis, and gall bladder problems requiring specialised treatment in the US and Germany. Indeed, he had only just returned from a trip to Cleveland, Ohio when he was re- admitted to hospital in Cairo. Officially, however, the Coptic Church insists Pope Shenouda has recovered and is fully capable of carrying out his duties.

"Longevity is in God's hand," Anba Moussa -- tipped as a possible successor to Shenouda -- told Al-Ahram Weekly, citing an Arabic proverb. "I recently officiated at the funeral of three young people killed in a car accident. There is no direct correlation between age and death."

While the church has stressed that rumours that Pope Shenouda will soon be travelling abroad for yet more medical treatment are untrue, many Copts worry over who will assume the papacy in the unfortunate event of Pope Shenouda's death. Currently, the selection process and eligibility of future popes are governed by church bylaws promulgated in 1957.

"Pope Shenouda III acknowledges that the 1957 church bylaws need to be amended. But it will be a long process and one in which I believe laymen and women must play a dynamic role," says Anba Moussa.

Concern over the succession to the papacy comes at a time of great change for Egypt and the region as a whole. The regional political map is fast changing and Egypt is in the throes of radical political and socio-economic upheavals. Many Copts see this as perfect opportunity to alter what they see as anachronisms within the church.

"The 1957 bylaws under which both Pope Kyrollos VI and Pope Shenouda III were selected are ill-suited to contemporary society," Gamal Asaad, former MP and a specialist on Coptic affairs, told the Weekly.

There is a powerful sense of history in the Coptic Orthodox Church of Egypt. Its adherents account for 95 per cent of the country's Christian population, officially estimated at 10 million but thought by many to be higher. The church's dogged determination over the millennia not to be brushed aside as an anachronism in an antique land is as strong as ever, while the challenges the Coptic Church faces in contemporary Egypt have never been more complex. This is, indeed, a defining moment for the Copts of Egypt.

"Copts are capable of solving their own problems without any intervention," remarked President Hosni Mubarak, who is in close touch with Pope Shenouda III and regularly briefed about the Coptic Patriarch's health.

The three names that come up most often in discussions of a successor to Shenouda are Anba Bishoi, a close associate of the current pope, Anba Moussa, the bishop in charge of youth, and Anba Yoannis, a graduate of the Medical College at Assiut University and ordained as a bishop in 1993. He is the youngest of the three, only taking monastic orders in 1986.

Many Copts question whether a diocesan bishop should become pope. Asaad contends that, strictly-speaking and in accordance with Coptic tradition, the current pope and his predecessor should not have been consecrated, and that their consecration set a precedent that led to confusion by allowing bishops to stand as papal candidates.

Many leading Copts pin their hopes for survival in the country on aligning themselves with the government and the ruling National Democratic Party, arguing that the rise of the Muslim Brotherhood constitutes a major threat to their continued existence in Egypt. Brotherhood political ascendancy is viewed with undisguised alarm.

"It is not proper to talk about succession when the Pope is still alive and reasonably healthy," Milad Hanna, a prominent Coptic intellectual, told the Weekly. "However, what can be said is that in the past Coptic tradition stipulated that the Pope be a relatively unknown monk. Anecdotally, he was referred to as 'an uncut watermelon', that is to say little was known about his character. He was literally snatched from some obscure monastery and pushed into the papal limelight. The system was deliberately devised to ensure that there would be no power struggle between the bishops over the papacy. But today things have changed and papal candidates are expected to be well-known. They must prove that they have served their parishioners well. This means that the pope is expected to be an exceptionally active and learned bishop."

Kyrollos VI was one such pope, and so is Pope Shenouda, who was consecrated 36 years ago, on 14 November 1971. He has revolutionised the entire church, reactivating several key community-based institutions and instigating other fundamental changes. He has represented the Coptic Church at numerous ecumenical forums abroad, even though he remained deeply attached to monastic life. Shenouda was appointed personal secretary to Pope Kyrollos VI in 1959 and later became the bishop in charge of education. In effect he was a bishop without a diocese, though one who was well known and much-loved by many church- goers.

Politics has played a crucial role during Shenouda's papacy. He has been vociferous in his defence of Coptic rights and has aired fears concerning the rising tide of Islamist militancy. Following a brush with the late President Anwar El-Sadat in 1981 he was exiled to the remote monastery of Saint Bishoi by presidential decree. Sadat set up a papal committee to discharge his duties, but in 1985 Mubarak revoked Sadat's decree. The interests and concerns of the two-million strong Coptic Christian community overseas have become an increasingly important factor in church politics during Shenouda's papacy.

Caption: Pope Shenouda II

C a p t i o n : Pope Shenouda II

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Al-Ahram Weekly Online : Located at: http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2007/871/eg8.htm